scorecard
  1. Home
  2. stock market
  3. news
  4. New housing data badly misses estimates, clouding the US economic outlook

New housing data badly misses estimates, clouding the US economic outlook

Gwen Everett   

New housing data badly misses estimates, clouding the US economic outlook
Stock Market1 min read

Rows of houses stand in San Francisco, California.
  • Pending home sales dropped for the month of December, while analysts expected to see the gauge rise.
  • The S&P 500 index fell on the news before paring losses.
  • It's one of two signals of softness this week out of a housing market that has otherwise showed signs of strength.
  • Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.

US pending home sales dropped 4.9% Wednesday, surprising markets that had been expecting to see a modest increase.

The S&P 500 index dipped to lows for the session after the release, trading down as much as 0.1%, and 0.6% from the morning's highs, before paring losses.

Consensus estimates predicted that the gauge, a key indicator of health in the US economy, would rise 0.5% for the month of December. It is not only soft data in the housing market - new home sales surprised Wall Street by falling to a five-month low Tuesday, Bloomberg reported. But it is a contradictory signal in a housing market that has otherwise been heating up. The pace of existing home sales, which makes up about 90% of all home sales, for December jumped to an almost two-year high on January 22.

To be sure, one miss may not be emblematic of a broader pullback, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Our guess is that the reported drop says more about the difficulty of seasonally adjusting the data across the year-end and/or the shortage inventory of homes for sale than it says about the underlying trend," he said in a Wednesday note.

Still, the gauge is widely seen as a leading indicator for both the housing market and the US econony: "Pending home sales track contract signings rather than closings, and tend to lead the existing home sales data by 1-2 months," said Goldman Sachs analyst Jan Hatzius in a Wednesday note, adding that the South had the most extreme pullback, though dips occured across all regions.


Advertisement

Advertisement