Jeff Gundlach, Byron Wien and other top investors see US stocks tumbling as the Fed hikes rates. Here are their warnings.
- Jeffrey Gundlach, Byron Wien and other top investors think stocks are about to hit a rocky patch.
- January has seen some volatility already as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
January has already seen its fair share of market volatility – but some of the world's top investors are saying more is on its way.
Tech stocks in particular have tumbled at the start of 2022, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates aggressively over the coming year, bringing an end to the era of easy money that has lifted risky assets.
Investment legends Jeffrey Gundlach and Byron Wien are among those who think markets are in for a wild ride as the Fed tries to get a grip on inflation, which is at its highest in 39 years. Here's what they have to say.
Jeffrey Gundlach sees a recession coming
"Bond king" and DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach told Yahoo Finance last week that he sees a strong chance that the US enters a recession within the next two years, as the Fed raises rates. And he said markets have plenty to be concerned about in the coming months too.
"The Fed [no longer] doing quantitative easing starting March … that's what investors should worry about," he told Yahoo's Brian Sozzi. "The valuation of stocks is also worrisome."
"The bond market is already showing enough of a recession indicator that, by 2023, it seems pretty likely," he said.
Depending on how aggressive the Fed is, a recession could come in the later part of this year, according to Gundlach.
The investor noted that when the central bank started tightening in 2018, "we got an instantaneous bear market."
Byron Wien predicts stocks will fall close to 20%
Blackstone's Byron Wien, the former head of US investment strategy at Morgan Stanley, said last week that stocks are poised to plunge in 2022.
In his closely watched Ten Predictions note, his first point was: "High volatility continues, and there is a correction that approaches, but does not exceed, 20%."
Equities should recover, Wien said, but he still predicted the S&P 500 will flatline this year. He foresees the Fed being forced to raise interest rates four times.
Jim Paulsen says a correction is 'way overdue'
Long-term bull and Leuthold Group's chief strategist Jim Paulsen told CNBC in late November that he thinks a 10% to 15% pullback in stocks is in the cards for 2022.
"We are way overdue for a correction, and we're going to get one," he said. "I would be trying to diversify away from the S&P 500, which I think might take the brunt of it."
He recommended that investors think about rebalancing their portfolios and moving away from stock in fast-growing techs. Instead, they should consider getting into companies that tend to fare better when the economy is stronger.
Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey sees stocks dropping 10% by summer
Chis Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, predicted that US stocks will shed as much as 10% before the summer and said it would be a tough year.
"Pullbacks will likely be more frequent in this choppier equity market. Ultimately, the bend-but-not-break market mentality finally fails investors in 2022 in our view," he said in a note published last week.
Yet he said the Republicans should take Congress in the midterms, setting the stage for a late rally in the S&P 500, which traditionally does better when the GOP controls the Senate.