Indian stock markets wobble as uncertainty builds around the U.S. election this week. What should investors do?

The US presidential elections have always been a global spectacle, with both geopolitical and economic implications for almost the entire world. The primary uncertainty, as with any election, is who will win. But after the last election, when President Donald Trump refused to concede in 2020, the suspense also involves whether the candidates will accept the verdict. Moreover, an added layer of uncertainty is the continued ambiguity over the specific policy measures that both Republican and Democratic candidates will take during the first few weeks.

The result of all these uncertainties, along with the growing geopolitical conflicts and economic turbulences, is a stock market that’s wobbling beyond bounds. As investors flock to safer asset classes like gold and bonds, the Indian stock market has been on a downward spiral for over a month now, dropping almost 10% from its peak in late September.

Sensex, Nifty tumbles on Monday

On Monday, November 4, Indian stock markets continued to experience heightened volatility. The Sensex and Nifty indices have each dropped by nearly 2% by noon, reflecting investor caution and aligning with recent market declines. On Monday morning, investors' wealth eroded by Rs 7.37 lakh crore as the equity markets fell sharply over 1000 points.

“As October concluded, it marked a challenging month for bulls, erasing gains accumulated over the past two months, with Nifty dropping more than 6% one of the steepest monthly declines in recent times, which has impacted the monthly chart's structure… a breach below this week's support range of 24100–24000 could trigger further weakness, possibly pulling prices toward the 200 SMA near 23500,” says Sameet Chavan, Head Research, Technical and Derivative - Angel One.

The turbulence is mirrored across major sectors, with substantial drops in IT, pharma, and financial stocks. High-profile stocks such as Reliance Industries, Hero Motorcorp, Coal India, ONGC and Tata Motors are all facing significant declines, with all these stocks down over 3%.

Additionally, the Indian rupee has weakened to record lows, and government bond yields have risen, indicating investors are positioning for an extended period of uncertainty. The heightened volatility, alongside the U.S. election dynamics, is creating both caution and opportunities for Indian traders. With high demand for safer assets, this period could offer gains for those correctly positioned, but for the broader market, these fluctuations highlight the risks tied to global dependencies and the complex U.S.-India economic linkages.

What should retail investors do?

While the Sensex has seen a 7% dip from recent highs, the rupee has touched a historic low, and government bond yields are up by 14 basis points. The experts recommendations are also varying on what the investors should do at this crucial juncture.

Given the growing uncertainties, retail investors should wait before deploying more capital, focusing on high-quality stocks and avoiding frothy small and midcap stocks that may carry heightened risks in the current environment, says the market expert Vijay Chopra.

"Retail investors can look into buying shares of good companies where valuations are reasonable. This market correction is a good opportunity to buy as India's growth path is intact," says Shriram Subramanian, Founder and MD, InGovern Research Services.

Overall, Indian investors and market analysts recommend a cautious approach. While the U.S. election creates a unique atmosphere of uncertainty, sticking to core investment principles—like diversification and long-term planning—can provide a buffer against the volatility expected over the coming weeks. Indian investors are increasingly aware that while the U.S. election is a spectacle to follow, broader economic indicators and global trends will ultimately shape the markets more than any one election outcome.

Expectations from the US presidential election 2024

As the U.S. prepares for its 2024 presidential election, the Indian markets are not immune to the volatility. With Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a tight race, stakes are high even for the Indian retail investors. The next U.S. administration’s policies could ripple through global markets, including India’s.

As per the experts, three primary issues in the U.S. election — tariffs, immigration, and taxation — could directly affect the Indian economy and investor sentiment, according to an analysis from The Economic Times.

Trump’s administration has historically used tariffs to curtail China’s manufacturing dominance, and if he wins, a continuation or even expansion of these tariffs could push inflation up. The ripple effect could push costs of imports and exports higher across emerging markets like India, affecting key sectors that trade with the US like IT, industrials, and manufacturing sectors.

In terms of immigration, a potential Trump victory could bring renewed scrutiny on H-1B visas, which are crucial for India’s tech sector as nearly 75% of these visas go to Indian workers. On the other hand, a Harris administration is likely to adopt a more lenient approach, but specifics would depend on Congress. Regarding taxation, Trump’s policies are often seen as pro-business, but Harris has proposed tax reforms aimed at higher corporate taxes, which could lower S&P 500 earnings by as much as 5.5%.

The central role of the US dollar and investments in the global economy means that any volatility in American markets often has a cascading effect on emerging markets. As it stands, uncertainty has already driven the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) higher, commonly referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” reflecting increased anxiety among global investors. For Indian markets, this could mean a series of short-term fluctuations, but a steady, diversified approach remains essential. History shows that while elections create immediate market ripples, longer-term impacts are typically moderate.

(With inputs from agencies)

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