- India is going to be a key driver in global oil demand growth for the next seven years, IEA said.
- The country's oil demand is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels a day by 2030, roughly a third of global demand gains.
Move over, China. India is going to be the foremost driver of global oil-demand growth over the next seven years.
According to a new report from the International Energy Agency, India's oil demand is expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels a day through 2030, which would make up roughly a third of the projected total over the period. The country was already the world's second-largest crude oil net importer in 2023.
"India will become the largest source of global oil demand growth between now and 2030, while growth in developed economies and China initially slows and then subsequently goes into reverse in our outlook," the IEA report said.
That shift is expected to arrive as India's economy keeps growing, along with its population and demographics. The country's massive industrial expansion is also a harbinger of soaring oil demand — through 2030, the sector is expected to account for about half the rise of India's oil demand and over a sixth of total global oil demand growth.
Meanwhile, China's economy has been going the other way. Beijing's blemished post-Covid growth and a fracturing property sector has tanked its stock market. Foreign investors have also fled the market.
But beyond economic muscle, India's oil demand growth is also a symptom of the global energy crisis, the IEA noted, which has forced countries around the world to prioritize energy security. That concern is a big one for India, a country highly dependent on oil imports. It only produces 13% of its supply needs.
Delhi has been pouring money into its refining sector in anticipation of that surging demand. The country is expected to add about 1 million barrels a day of new refinery distillation capacity by 2030, more than any other country besides China.
According to the IEA, India's oil demand would be even stronger — about 480 kilo barrels a day — if it wasn't for their investment in the energy transition.