Here's why the May jobs report shocked economists who were expecting near-record unemployment and massive losses

• The jobs report on Friday said the unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May, a development that surprised many economists.
• It had been projected to hit a historic high of nearly 20%.
• Economists said that the unemployment rate would have been 3 percentage points higher had it not been for classification issues and that some workers could be returning to their old positions.

The jobs report released on Friday said the unemployment rate declined to 13.3% in May, a remarkable development after many economists projected that the share of Americans out of work would surge to a historic high of nearly 20%.

The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics left plenty of people scratching their heads. In April, unemployment surged to nearly 15% as the economy shed more than 20 million jobs.

But the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic isn't a typical one. The public-health emergency led to the shutdown of vast swaths of an economy that was relatively healthy and not the collapse of certain sectors such as finance as in 2008. Some experts said it increased the prospect of an economic rebound once the coronavirus crisis is dealt with.

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Economists noted that there were caveats in the BLS report.

Steven Rattner, a counselor to the treasury secretary during the Obama administration, pointed out that the agency said unemployment would have been 3 percentage points higher (16%) had it counted the workers who were technically employed but absent from work as being out of a job.

—Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) June 5, 2020

Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, said that about 75% of unemployment claims were furloughs, indicating that a substantial number of workers could return to their old positions as lockdowns ease and businesses reopen.

—Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) June 5, 2020

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There was some speculation that the unemployment figures might have been tampered with. But economists including Jason Furman, the head of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration, said that scenario could be discounted because of professionalism of the government agency that releases the data.

—Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) June 5, 2020

"BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number," Furman wrote in a tweet.

The surprise decline in the unemployment rate left President Donald Trump in a buoyant mood. He repeatedly hailed the development, calling it "a stupendous number."

"It is a stunner by any stretch of the imagination!" he said in a tweet.

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