Here's why inflation may have peaked — but a recession could still loom

I hope this newsletter finds you well, even as inflation runs amok and everything from groceries to gas is more expensive than a year ago. Phil Rosen here, coming to you from Los Angeles today.

No matter how many times the Fed told us inflation was transitory, high prices have been hard to ignore. But one top economist predicted that, finally, our wallets may get some respite.

But there's a catch. There's always a catch.

Here we go.

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1. Inflation might have hit its peak, but there's still pain ahead even if prices start to fall, according to Mohamed El-Erian, famed economist and advisor to Allianz.

Here's what he told CNBC on Friday:

"I think inflation has peaked in the US, at least for the next three to four months…But the problem is not that inflation is going to come down — that's a really good thing. The problem is that inflation is going to come down with growth probably going into a recession, and that's not good news."

Goldman Sachs said a broad slowdown would hit Corporate America too, even though it has so far weathered 41-year high inflation without much impact to profitability.

In the first half of the year, Americans have picked up the slack for corporations. But soon US companies are going to find it increasingly difficult to pass on price hikes to consumers, Goldman said, and that's left earnings estimates far too optimistic.

"Because employment has been strong, the economy has been strong, consumers have had savings — so they've been able to pass through most of that to the consumer," a senior Goldman Sachs strategist said.

"I think it will become more difficult to pass that through to the consumer, and we are expecting margins to be squeezed," she added.

In other news:

2. US stock futures rise early Monday, as investors brace for further interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve later this week. Meanwhile, bitcoin fell back below the $22,000 level. Here are today's market moves.

3. On the docket: Linde plc, Cadence Design Systems Inc., and Axis Bank Ltd, all reporting.

4. UBS recommended this batch of stocks that can generate strong returns during a "historically fast slowdown" that could turn into a recession. According to the firm's analysts, these are the names that they have high conviction in despite the current and brutal market. Here's the list of 22 stocks.

5. Russian oil that usually goes to China is making its way to India instead as competition for cheap crude heats up. Cargoes carrying Russian oil were en route to east India on Friday, where an Indian Oil Corp refinery is located. But that's not all — Iran and Venezuela are also ramping up competition to sell crude to India and China.

6. There's a new type of lumber contract set to shake up the futures market. And its going to allow the key commodity to be moved at one-quarter the volume compared to old contracts. A lumber broker in Colorado told Insider that the switch could skyrocket the number of orders flowing into the lumber market and smooth out price volatility.

7. "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki warned that raging US inflation could spark a historic depression. The personal finance guru said surging prices and workforce cuts are red flags for a steep downturn. Kiyosaki also sounded the alarm on home sales and foreclosures in a bleak prediction for US real estate.

8. Bank of America is home to the most bearish stock chief on Wall Street. Savita Subramanian has slashed her target for US indexes lower than her competitors have. But she said investors should make these 8 moves to profit from an increasingly difficult market.

9. Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried has big plans to bail out crypto companies amid the market rout. Speaking with Bloomberg, he said FTX keeps its treasury in dollars to curb risk, and explained how he assesses which troubled firms to help. Plus, he broke down why it's okay to make a "moderately bad" deal in the current landscape.

10. Ether jumped as much as 50% over the last month. And it has beaten out bitcoin's gains over the same stretch, as enthusiasm for the crypto grows after an Ethereum Foundation member sparked rumors about an upcoming update. However, ether was down 4% early Monday. Follow the latest price moves here.

Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.

Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn).

Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.