Here's how inflation and slowing demand make for a nightmare economy for the Fed.
For me, a bad dream is when I forget to hit "send" on Opening Bell. But to get an idea of what a nightmare looks like for the Fed, just take a look at the economy.
I'm Phil Rosen, coming to you from Los Angeles. Right now the US is dealing with escalating prices and volatile markets and a technical recession and… you get the idea.
The Fed's got a lot on its plate. But America isn't the only place dealing with these economic hurdles.
Today, I'm breaking down where top economists think we're heading next.
(Hint: We are not in the clear.)
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1. Don't discount the odds of a recession just yet. The US economy just shrank two consecutive quarters in a row, and downbeat manufacturing data from China hasn't helped its economic forecasts.
Though there is some debate over whether a recession will be officially called by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Citi's chief economist said there's a 50% chance of a global recession thanks to declining demand on top of soaring inflation around the world.
"I would say the recent economic data has been the central bank's worst nightmare," Citi's Nathan Sheets said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
He's focused on the threat of stagflation — high inflation paired with low growth. A downturn for not just the US but the whole planet presents a "clear and present danger," Citi strategists noted.
Other economists such as "Dr. Doom" have said the Fed will have to decide whether to tolerate long-term high prices or to tip the economy into a recession.
But some optimism remains, with Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel telling CNBC Monday that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hikes, something markets are eagerly waiting for signs of.
He explained that markets want the central bank to consider that expectations for inflation have cooled:
"[The Fed] has got to be looking at the sensitive commodities and housing prices and say, 'you know what? Yeah we messed up later on and caused a lot of inflation, but forward-looking inflation has really been stopped.'"
In other news:
2. US stock futures rise early Wednesday, amid ongoing US-China tensions. Meanwhile, Solana's token is down 2.13%, after thousands of Solana wallets were targeted in the latest multimillion dollar crypto hack. Here are this morning's market moves.
3. On the docket: eBay Inc., MetLife Inc., and BMW AG, all reporting. Plus, look out for the ISM report on business services PMI, expected later today.
4. The head of BlackRock's investment advisory arm said a "soft landing" for the economy is a remote possibility as the Fed continues its hiking cycle. Jean Boivin said the central bank hasn't really pivoted on interest rates yet. Here's how he's telling investors to deploy their money for today and for the long run.
5. Germany is feeling the energy crisis to such an extent that even its crematoriums are having to cut their energy use. Natural gas prices are skyrocketing across Europe as Russia continues its wartime gas cut-offs. Now, with no good news in sight, industry leaders are working on emergency plans.
6. UBS's chief investment officer said stock markets will remain volatile for the next few months even after the July rebound. "There remains far too much uncertainty and markets may stay choppy in the coming months," Mark Haefele said. His comments follow a 9% rally in the S&P 500 last month.
7. Robinhood has lost a third of its users in the space of a year. The online brokerage's second-quarter earnings report showed monthly active users tumbled 34%. Chief executive Vlad Tenev also said the company was cutting 23% of its staff.
8. A top research analyst predicted that a crypto bull market may not hit for another nine months. The reason? Equities are too closely coupled with token prices. But if prices diverge then the bear market could ease sooner. He broke down three ways a risk-averse investor can manage their portfolio right now.
9. Investors shouldn't panic even though the US economy just notched a technical recession, Bank of America analysts said. A dovish Federal Reserve doesn't mean the market has reached its bottom just yet — so there's reason to taper your optimism as well. Here's what you want to know.
10. Shares of a Chinese tech firm have jumped more than 30,000% since its July IPO and even the company has no idea why. AMTD Digital has soared to the moon and currently has a market valuation of nearly $150 billion. In Tuesday's session, AMTD's parent company surged more than 500%.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn).
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.