Here's what 5 economists are saying about unemployment after 26 million Americans filed jobless claims in just 5 weeks

"All else equal, job losses of this magnitude would translate into an unemployment rate of 18.3%," Heidi Shierholz, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, wrote in a note Thursday.

"However, the official unemployment rate, when it is released, will likely not reflect all coronavirus-related layoffs," she said, adding this is because jobless workers are counted only as unemployed if they are actively seeking work.

She continued: "The UI claims of the last five weeks, while extraordinary, don't even include most people who aren't eligible for regular UI but are nevertheless out of work due to the virus—people like gig workers or independent contractors, and many others."

"With the pain spreading from retail and hospitality to other sectors less than half of the working age population of America will be earning a wage by May," James Knightley, ING's chief international economist, wrote in a note Thursday.

"As we scramble to look for positives, we can say that this is the third consecutive fall in initial claims," he said. "Nonetheless this is an awful outcome (today's number is more than six times higher than even the worst figure during the peak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009) and underlines the economic pain for US households brought about by the pandemic."

"It will be interesting to see what happens in the states that are re-opening parts of their economy from this weekend – Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida. We would assume jobless claims will fall back sharply here, but if consumers remain reluctant to go shopping or visit a restaurant due to lingering Covid-19 fears, then employment is not going to rebound quickly," he said, adding, "as such it would be another signal that a V-shaped recovery for the US economy is highly unlikely."

"While still brutally high, unemployment claims fell again for the third week in a row," Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, told Business Insider.

"Today, more than 1 in 7 Americans who were working in February have filed for help," he said.
"Expect claims to stay in the millions for at least several more weeks as more people lose their jobs, and also because some states' filing systems are still lagging."

"26 million workers have filed for unemployment insurance since March 21st. Let that sink in," economist Jason Reed, assistant chair and teaching professor of finance at the University of Notre Dame's Mendoza College of Business, told Business Insider.

"The toll on opening the economy are lives. Fiscal policy, like the CARES act and the new relief bill being discussed in congress, are meant to help mitigate the effects of our collective decision to stay at home," he said.

He continued: "Congress can't bring back Americans lost to the coronavirus but they can, eventually, bring back jobs. Although the numbers are bleak, there is certainly light at the end of the tunnel."

"American labor dynamics deteriorated further for the week," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, wrote in a Thursday note. In addition, the losses this week imply that the "near real-time unemployment rate has increased to 21.1% at a minimum," he said.

"The magnitude of the shock to the labor market is so large that it is difficult not to begin thinking about the wage picture for American workers going forward," said Brusuelas, adding that wage growth was sluggish in the previous business cycle.

"While we anticipate a quotient of wage stickiness among the two lower quintiles of income earners, it is difficult to believe that there will not be significant wage flexibility up the income ladder that will result in wage deflation and an outright decline in the overall level of prices over the next two years," he said.