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On Friday, the March jobs report showed that the US economy lost more jobs than economists were expecting, a worrying sign about the damage to come amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The report is "grim, but only the start," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note Friday. "This is terrible but unfortunately it's nothing compared to what's coming in April."
Economists are certain that there's more pain to come as coronavirus layoffs continue. Here's what five said after the March report on Friday.
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1. Pantheon Macroeconomics: "Losses were trivial in the bigger picture"
"The drop in payrolls indicates that gross hiring stopped suddenly before layoffs began to rise," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson wrote Friday.
He continued: "The net job losses are concentrated in leisure and hospitality, down 459K, with smaller declines in most other components, including retail, education, and healthcare, though the latter will rebound."
"These losses were trivial in the bigger picture. For April, we think payrolls will drop by 14-to-17M, driving the unemployment rate to 12-to-14%."
2. Glassdoor: "Labor market is coming to a screeching halt"
"After 113 months of solid jobs growth, the labor market is coming to a screeching halt," Glassdoor economist Daniel Zhao wrote Friday.
He continued: "The unemployment rate is not capturing the full impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons surged by 1.45M and an additional 1.76M workers dropped out of the labor force, workers who would not be counted in the unemployment rate"
"The decline in payrolls was largely driven by leisure and hospitality (-459,000 jobs), temporary help services (-49,500) and retail (-46,000), the industries hardest hit by the outbreak. Notably, health care and social assistance also lost 61,000 jobs—while the coronavirus outbreak does demand more healthcare workers, there are many healthcare workers not directly involved with the coronavirus response who have been laid off."
3. Economic Policy Institute: "The leading edge of the deep recession"
"The monthly employment numbers released today show just the leading edge of the deep recession we are certainly now in," Elise Gould, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, wrote in a Friday note. This is because these numbers do not capture the entire month of March but refer only to the payroll period containing March 12, before shutdowns accelerated, she said.
"Today's data, combined with yesterday's unprecedented unemployment insurance claims, show that Congress must act quickly to mitigate as much of the economic harm from the coronavirus as possible," Gould wrote.
She continued: "EPI estimates that nearly 20 million jobs could be lost by July, and many more could be lost if further action isn't taken. Congress should now turn to crafting another relief package that includes a large and much-needed infusion of state and local aid, continues cash assistance to households beyond a single payment, and extends the unemployment insurance provisions in the earlier bill with explicit triggers-off tied to economic conditions."
4. RSM: "A sober, clear-eyed precursor"
"Following 113 straight months of job gains, the U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, providing a glimpse of things to come," Joe Brusuelas, RSM's chief economist, wrote in a Friday note.
He continued: "The internal dynamics inside the report are a sober, clear-eyed precursor to what is going to be the largest bloodletting in the labor market since the 1929-1933 period of the Great Depression."
"The details of the report are in line with what one can visibly observe. The service sector shed 659,000 jobs, with the 459,000 decline in leisure and hospitality providing the majority of the losses. Trade and transport shed 49,000 jobs, while retail trade saw a loss of 46,000. Business services lost 52,000, education and health 76,000, goods producing 54,000 and construction 29,000."
5. Bank of America: "An ugly jobs report"
"Bottom line: This was an ugly jobs report, showing that the pain in the economy started in early March, well before the spike in the weekly initial jobless claims data," a group of Bank of America economists led by Joseph Song wrote on Friday. "It is going to get much worse in coming reports."
He continued: "Today's report confirms our view that a major dislocation is happening in the US labor market amid the coronavirus pandemic. We expect millions more (16-20mn) will be jobless in upcoming reports as initial jobless claims have spiked over 10mn in the prior two reports and we think more are on the way."
"These job losses will translate into the unemployment rate reaching 15% if not higher in upcoming reports. The March report is just a sneak peek of what is to come."
