Going back to work next week won't save the economy. It will just kill more people and prolong the pain.
- The federal government is finally taking the right steps to confront the coronavirus pandemic by urging people to work from home and social distance.
- But President Trump wants to lift the restrictions and get Americans back to work in an attempt to lift the US economy.
- This is a bad idea that will only cost lives and drag out the pandemic.
- This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.
- Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
After weeks of denial and incompetence, the federal government of the United States is finally taking the coronavirus seriously - and taking some of the right steps to address it.
As expected, these steps are having a devastating impact on the economy and tens of millions of businesses and working Americans.
But they are still the right steps to take.
We cannot have a healthy economy when people are-justifiably-scared that every social interaction or trip outside their homes might spread infection. Even without government-mandated lockdowns, few people would be using most restaurants, bars, gyms, airlines, hotels, and cruise lines right now anyway.
Instead of sticking with the lockdown plan, however, the President and others are now second-guessing it - and arguing that the "cure is worse than the disease."
The President even says he is considering ending the lockdown and telling Americans to go back to work next week.
This is a terrible idea.
Lifting the lockdown next week will not "save the economy." It will just kill more Americans and prolong the pain.
How do we beat the virus? By doing what China and South Korea did - and what we have started to do.
Doctors, epidemiologists, and public health experts agree that the best way to get control of the coronavirus is to "socially distance" to slow the spread of the virus while radically increasing our testing and medical capacity. The lockdown slows the rate of new infections. Increased testing and medical capacity will allow us to identify and isolate everyone who is infectious -including those who have no symptoms- and treat those who get seriously ill.
The countries that have done this - namely, China, South Korea, and Singapore - have slowed new cases to a manageable level. And they have begun to lift restrictions and restart their economies.
Based on the China and South Korea experience, the impact of widespread "testing and tracing" and lockdowns takes about 10 days to two weeks to show up in the data. This is because it takes an average of about five days from infection for people to start showing symptoms and another week or so before some get seriously sick and get test results.
South Korea's primary strategy was widespread testing. The country starting testing in early February and, over the next two weeks, scaled to thousands of tests a day. The epidemic peaked by the end of February.
China emphasized lockdowns. The city of Wuhan and 15 other Hubei cities shut down on January 23 and 24. Confirmed cases in Hubei peaked 11 to 12 days later. (This chart shows Hubei daily new cases from December 8, 2019 through February 11, 2020: The blue bars show the onset of symptoms. The yellow show the date of confirmed cases.)
Andy Slavitt, the former acting head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services under President Obama, has also been sharing some encouraging data showing the trend of confirmed cases in US cities that locked down early (San Francisco) versus those that waited (Miami). The cities that locked down earlier are doing better.
If we had full testing capacity, and could identify, isolate, and trace the contacts of all cases the way South Korea has, we might be able to safely consider more targeted social distancing measures. Until we have that capacity, however, we're flying blind.
So, how long will it be until we can get back to work and school again?
President Trump apparently wants Americans to go back to work immediately. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo estimates that the restrictions could last as long as "nine months." An influential Imperial College study from last week estimated 5 months. Others estimate 2-3 months.
Again, the experience of China, South Korea, and other countries that took strong, fast action suggests that they start to show results in about two weeks. A few weeks after that, with widespread testing, the epidemic becomes easier to manage. If we continue the lockdown measures and radically increase our testing and medical capacity, therefore, we might be able to begin to safely relax some social-distancing restrictions in one to three months.
The concern, obviously, is that if we lift restrictions too early or too fast, the number of new cases will start exploding again.
In early March, Hong Kong appeared to have its epidemic under control, and the city allowed people to return to work. But as CNN reports, two weeks after Hong Kong lifted restrictions, the new daily case rate started to rise again. Now Hong Kong has had to re-implement restrictions.
In a month or two, though, some important things will be different in the US than they are today. First and foremost, we will finally have the testing capacity necessary to be able to test even people without symptoms, as South Korea and other countries have for weeks. We should therefore finally be able to identify and isolate those who actually have the virus, as opposed to requiring everyone to maintain social distance.
If we can identify new cases through testing, isolate them, and trace their contacts, we should be able to lift some broad "social distancing" restrictions and apply them in a more targeted and limited way. So, in one to three months, we may be able to safely lift some restrictions, at least for some parts of the country.
What would happen if we just went back to work?
If, as the President suggests, all local restaurant, bar, gym, and other shop employees just went back to work, the rate of new infections would likely accelerate again.
This would quickly put even more pressure on our testing and medical capacity.
It would also not, as the President suggests, rescue the economy.
Americans are finally beginning to understand the seriousness of this epidemic, and they're taking steps to protect themselves and their communities and families. At best, the number of Americans resuming "life as usual" would be far lower than normal. So there would still be widespread layoffs, shutdowns, and economic pain.
What's more, the crisis phase of the epidemic would likely last longer than it will if we maintain the lockdown now and get the epidemic under control.
While the President and others fail to understand this, some of his most ardent supporters, thankfully, do.
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina puts it this way:
"Try running an economy with major hospitals overflowing, doctors and nurses forced to stop treating some because they can't help all, and every moment of gut-wrenching medical chaos being played out in our living rooms, on TV, on social media, and shown all around the world."
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