Global fossil fuel demand has to crater 25% by 2030 if the world is going to meet its climate goals, IEA says
- Global fossil fuel demand must fall by 25% by 2030 for the world to meet climate change goals, the IEA said.
- In a Tuesday report, the group said the path to limiting global warming has narrowed.
Governments must work to reduce global fossil fuel demand by 25% by the start of the next decade to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, according to the International Energy Agency's updated outlook, Net Zero Roadmap, published Tuesday.
Beyond 2030, fossil fuel demand will have to drop by 80% by 20250 in the IEA's view. Demand dropping to that level would mean the world no longer needs most new oil and gas projects, and wouldn't require new coal mining operations.
"Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires the world to come together quickly," said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA. "[W]e also have a very clear message: Strong international cooperation is crucial to success. Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand."
Improving technology in the clean energy sector offers promise, but climate goals demand more momentum still, the group said. More investment in fossil fuel efficiency and alternative energies can help crimp demand, and the new report forecasts global renewable power capacity to triple within the next six years.
Advanced economies will have to reach net-zero sooner to allow for developing countries more time to build out alternative energy sources, the IEA said.
For the entire world to reach net zero, it will take an investment of about $45 billion per year, and nearly every country must "move forward their targeted net zero dates." In this outlook, global clean energy spending climbs from $1.8 trillion in 2023 to $4.5 trillion annually by the start of the next decade.
Earlier this month, Birol wrote in a column for the Financial Times global demand for the three main energy sources of oil, gas, and coal would peak this decade. The age of "seemingly relentless growth" for fossil fuel demand is at the beginning of the end, he said.
"Based only on today's policy settings by governments worldwide — even without any new climate policies — demand for each of the three fossil fuels is set to hit a peak in the coming years," he wrote. "This is the first time that a peak in demand is visible for each fuel this decade — earlier than many people anticipated."
The IEA's outlook comes as US and international oil prices continue to march sharply higher in the second half of 2023. On Wednesday, US oil prices hit the highest level in 2023, while international oil prices pushed closer to the important $100 per barrel threshold.