Economists forecast that an additional 1.8 million Americans filed for unemployment last week
- The median economist estimate for jobless claims in the week ending May 30 is 1.8 million, according to Bloomberg data. The Labor Department will release the official report Thursday.
- While a decline from the previous week, the estimate is still nearly three times higher than the worst seven-day period during the Great Recession, when 665,000 people filed for unemployment.
- It's still "indicative of a labor market that's under quite a lot of stress," Michelle Meyer of Bank of America told Business Insider.
Economists expect that initial claims data from the Labor Department will show another week in which millions of Americans filed for unemployment insurance benefits.
The median economist estimate is for the Thursday report to show 1.8 million initial claims filed in the week ending May 30, according to Bloomberg data.
That would be a decrease from the 2.1 million Americans who filed during the prior period, and mark the ninth weekly decline in a row. Still, 1.8 million jobless claims is a highly elevated number that's nearly three times larger than the worst week of the great recession, when 665,000 filed for unemployment.
It's still "indicative of a labor market that's under quite a lot of stress," Michelle Meyer of Bank of America told Business Insider.
Economists will also be watching to see if continuing claims — which indicate people receiving unemployment benefits — fall for a second week in a row. In the previous report, continuing claims dipped for the first time since sweeping coronavirus-induced layoffs began when the US went into lockdown in mid-March.
While declining initial claims show that fewer Americans are being laid off and seeking benefits, falling continuing claims indicate that at least some previously unemployed workers are returning to jobs. As all 50 states continue to slowly reopen their economies, that could be a sign that rehiring is taking place.
Thursday's report precedes the May jobs release on Friday, which economists expect will show the US lost roughly 8 million jobs and the unemployment rate surged to 19% during the month. In April, the US lost a record 20.5 million jobs and saw the unemployment rate spike to 14.7%, the highest since the 1940s.
Still, there's always the chance that the report comes in better than expectations — on Wednesday, ADP's private payrolls report showed that 2.76 million jobs were cut in May, far fewer than the 9 million economists were expecting.