Top of the morning, Opening Bell crew. I'm senior reporter Phil Rosen, rounding out my last few days in Manhattan before heading west for the holidays.
If you pick one thing to watch today besides the World Cup (go Argentina), make it this morning's inflation report, due at 8:30 AM ET.
Economists broadly expect this year's final Consumer Price Index reading to show inflation easing, but nonetheless running at triple what it was before the pandemic, about 7.3% year-over-year.
Remember, inflation accelerated to a four-decade high of 9.1% back in June, and most recently clocked in at 7.7% in October.
That said, policymakers are expected to announce a 50-basis-point rate hike Wednesday, regardless of the reading, which would be the fifth outsized hike in a row.
Stay tuned for our coverage of Fed day and the market reaction tomorrow.
By the way: Bahamian authorities arrested ex-FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried last night, at the request of the US government. Hours after his arrest, the SEC announced it will file separate charges against SBF relating to violations of securities law. This is a developing story.
Now let's talk China and oil.
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1. President Xi Jinping is pushing to buy oil using yuan, a move that threatens to rattle global energy trade and hit at the long-standing dominance of the US dollar.
At a summit with Arab leaders on Friday, Xi said China will continue to import large volumes of energy supplies from Gulf states, and settle payments using its own currency.
"The Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange platform will be fully utilized for RMB settlement in oil and gas trade," Xi said, according to a transcript of his speech published by the state-run China Daily.
While the president didn't specify when the change would go into effect, and whether Gulf nations will take up the proposal, it's been reported that Saudi Arabia — the world's top oil exporter — has already been in talks for months to trade oil in yuan with China.
As things stand, roughly 80% of global oil sales are done in dollars, and Saudi Arabia has inked deals exclusively in the greenback since 1974.
Should a Saudi-yuan deal crystallize, it would bolster China's currency at the expense of the dollar, as well as reinforce Beijing's status as a critical player in global financial markets.
But it's hard to talk about China's role in oil markets without nodding to their extensive zero-COVID policies, which have crimped global oil demand since 2020.
Currently, the international benchmark for crude is hovering around $77 a barrel, but a fully re-opened China could push prices above $100 a barrel next year, according to UBS.
Easing pandemic measures in China combined with a Europe's ban on Russian oil imports, which came into effect last week, will stoke demand and stifle supply — meaning prices will go up.
"Chinese oil demand has been bottled up for three years now, and China has a huge multiplier effect on the region," Energy Aspects' analyst Amrita Sen said Monday.
"China reopening will be very very bullish for oil markets," she added. "Now, again, not expecting that to be overnight, but over the course of next year, this is going to be probably the single biggest driver of oil prices."
What do you think about China's oil moves and global crude markets? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
2. US stock futures rise early Tuesday, as investors await the latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, crypto exchange Binance has paused withdrawals of the stablecoin USDC, Reuters reports. Here are the latest market moves.
3. Earnings on deck: Microsoft, Westpac Banking, and Orica, all reporting.
4. RBC recommended this group of high-conviction growth stocks. These 23 companies are analyst-favorites, as they can bring market-beating returns that top 90%. See the full list here.
5. Next year's recession is likely to be mild, but investors should still brace for market volatility. CFRA's chief investment strategist is expecting markets to stabilize in the second half of 2023, and for the Fed to conclude tightening by the third quarter. Plus, he said he's watching the energy sector for outperformance in the new year.
6. Oppenheimer said the S&P 500 is set to surge 12% in 2023 thanks to cooling inflation and China's reopening. The benchmark index could hit 4,400, analysts predicted, which would mark an improvement over this year's performance but still short of an all-time high. Ultimately, stocks could find upside from easing CPI data and the smoothing out of supply chains.
7. The bear market in stocks is entering its final phase. And according to Morgan Stanley analysts, the next chapter has nothing to do with Fed or inflation. Find out why.
8. This 26-year-old makes up to $107,000 in revenue a month selling products on Amazon. Trevin Peterson explained the key differences between those who make six figures on the platform and those who make a few hundred bucks. These are his top five tips that help his products rank on the first page and sell.
9. Five early retirees and entrepreneurs explained how to earn more money and increase your income with side hustles. Insider rounded up a range of ideas from people who have found creative ways to diversify their income and move toward financial freedom. Read their money-making recommendations here.
10. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest scooped up $3.2 million of Coinbase stock. That dip-buying bullishness comes as crypto exchanges just saw their biggest bitcoin outflows ever last month. So far through 2022's crypto winter, shares of Coinbase are down roughly 83%.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.