Boom2Bust: Retail investors to face the brunt as small and midcap corrections wipe out billions of dollars

• Retail investors who drove the small and midcap stocks rally last year might face the brunt of its correction this year.
• Not only do retail investors hold more small and midcap stocks than large caps, but their holdings have also gone up.
• Even as correction is at play, there are cherry-picking opportunities for investors, assure experts, due to India’s macro fundamentals.
  

The mid- and small-cap retail investors seem star-crossed at the moment as the markets continue to punish most stocks in these segments this quarter. The retail investors could see the worst of the ongoing rout, as they hold more such stocks compared to previous years.

A whopping ₹6.6 trillion ($80 billion) has been lost in the small-cap stocks alone in less than two weeks since the authorities raised concerns over this overheating sector, reports Bloomberg. Proportionately, retail investors presence in small and midcap stocks is more than it is in the large caps. Also, their holdings in these indices have also gone up in the last four years, as per data by Kotak Institutional Equities.

“The excessive valuations in these segments (small and midcap) driven by the irrational exuberance of retail investors have been a concern for many months now. But it has taken the strong message from the regulator SEBI to trigger a correction in the Nifty Small cap index by 10 per cent from the February 8 peak,” said V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

End of good times?

For a long time, small and midcaps have been providing good returns to investors in the last few years. As much as 61% of midcap and 63% of small-cap stocks have given more than 30% return in the past year.

“In our view, high return expectations and high returns over the past three years may have reinforced their direct participation through mid- and small-cap stocks and indirect participation through mid and small-cap funds,” says Kotak.

Even after seeing a correction of 5% in the NSE Midcap 100 and 10% in the Nifty Smallcap 100 over the past month, on a one-year basis, their performance has been good. They’re still up 53% and 58%, respectively, in the past one year.

The rally drivers, however, might have to face the worst of it too. In the recent crash, hundreds of smallcap stocks hit lower circuits, and a bulk of stocks have given negative returns in the last month.

A rising tide of retail investors

A relentless rally last year may have driven more and more retail investors to enter these segments at a rather risky juncture. Now, retail investors hold more proportion of small and midcap stocks compared to large caps, with a sharp rise in the last four years, according to the data by Kotak Institutional Equities.

“It would appear that retail investors have taken a more positive view on small-cap stocks and a more active part in the rally in smallcap stocks and are thus more exposed to the ongoing correction,” says the Kotak report.

A bulk of mid and small cap stocks have also run up ahead of their consensus estimates. “We find the valuations of the majority of the mid-cap and small-cap stocks to be quite expensive, especially in the context of their business models as well as their own history,” Kotak adds.

Retail/FPI Holdings across indices:

Retail investors’ strategy has been just opposite to that of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). FPIs hold more large caps than others and have reduced their holdings in small and midcaps over the years.

A hopeful outlook

Even as the broader market saw a selloff recently, Nifty itself has suffered less, point out experts. From its peak, the smallcap index is down 13.5% and the midcap index is down 6.8%. But Nifty is stable with a minor cut of 2.1%, says Dr Vijayakumar.

Most experts expect a correction even in the broader markets going ahead. But they do point out that the market will provide cherry-picking opportunities for investors, as India’s macro fundamentals are intact. Fitch Ratings revised its FY24 and FY25 GDP growth forecasts upwards to 7.8% and 7% respectively on Thursday.

“Domestic demand, especially investment, will be the main driver of growth, amid sustained levels of business and consumer confidence,” it said, adding that it expects the Indian economy to see ‘strong expansion’.

Dr Vijayakumar says that the turbulence in the market will provide cherry-picking opportunities. “From now on irrational exuberance will take a back seat and rational valuations and quality will be the driving force. This turbulence will separate the men from the boys. High-quality private sector banks and the leading names in capital goods, telecom and autos can be accumulated in a calibrated manner,” he adds.