Bank of England cuts 2021 growth forecast, but suggests negative rates won't come any time soon as COVID vaccines will power 'rapid' recovery
- The Bank of England cut its 2021 growth prediction for the UK economy.
- It held interest rates at 0.1% and bond-buying at £895 billion ($1.22 trillion).
- The Bank's forecasts suggest negative interest rates are unlikely any time soon.
The Bank of England cut its forecast for UK economic growth in 2021 on Thursday, saying new coronavirus curbs put in place in January would cause a contraction in the first three months of the year.
Yet the UK's central bank said the speedy rollout of coronavirus vaccines would help the economy "recover rapidly" in the second half of the year. The BoE predicted the economy will regain its pre-COVID size by the first quarter of 2022.
The Bank left interest rates at their record-low level of 0.1%, and held its bond-buying package steady at £895 billion ($1.22 trillion).
It also gave an update on its review of negative interest rates, saying it would start preparing so that it could implement them if needed.
However, the BoE stressed that this "should not be interpreted as a signal that the setting of a negative bank rate is imminent, or indeed in prospect at any time."
It said it had found that Britain's banks would need at least six months to be ready for such a policy. Yet the BoE's forecast said the UK economy should be growing rapidly by then.
The pound rallied sharply after the announcement as investors reacted to the suggestion that negative rates are not a prospect any time soon. Sterling was last up 0.28% to $1.368.
In its latest quarterly report into the health of the UK economy, the BoE predicted gross domestic product would now grow 5% in 2021 compared to its November estimate of 7.25% growth.
The report said the restrictions put in place in January meant "GDP is expected to fall by around 4% in 2021 Q1."
Yet it said the economy is then "projected to recover rapidly towards pre-COVID levels over 2021", as the UK's vaccine programme causes "an easing of COVID-related restrictions and people's health concerns."
It said that inflation is expected to "rise quite sharply towards the 2% target in the spring" - from the current level of 0.6% - thanks to certain consumption-tax cuts coming to an end and rising energy prices.
The Bank now expects inflation to be around 2% in 2022 and 2023, while the economy is now expected to grow 7.25% in 2022, compared to the November prediction of 6.25%.
More than 100,000 people have now died from coronavirus in the UK, giving the country one of the worst death rates in the world.
Its economy has been hit particularly badly. The International Monetary Fund last month said the UK had suffered the deepest contraction out of the G7 group of rich countries in 2020, at 10%.
However, the UK has been one of the fastest at distributing coronavirus vaccines. More than 10 million people have already received their first jab.