Apple stock is poised to jump 20% as its iPhone 15 will drive a 'mini super cycle,' Wedbush says

• The new iPhone 15 will spark 20% upside for Apple stock, Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives wrote.
• He maintained an outperform rating and held a price target of $230.

The upcoming release of the iPhone 15 will push Apple's stock up 20% from current levels, according to Dan Ives.

The Wedbush Securities analyst maintained an outperform rating for the tech giant, upholding its $230 price target. That's not only because the lineup will offer noteworthy new features — Ives also expects that it'll come with a price increase, driving Apple into a "mini super cycle," he argued in a Thursday note.

While base model prices will remain unchanged, a strategic uptick of $100 is warranted for the new iPhone 15 Pro and Max models, given improved chip, battery and photo technology included with the units. The lineup's release is set for September 12.

Despite the price hike, Apple consumers are unlikely to shy away from buying the product, given expectations of massive discounts and promotions from US carriers, as well as the fact that iPhones' average selling price has already been rising towards a $900-$925 level, Ives wrote.

Meanwhile, the company may find demand strong among its customers, given that around 25% of its 1.2 billion installed base has held off on an iPhone upgrade for four years, Wedbush estimated.

Despite Ives' optimism, Apple shares have tumbled 3% on Wednesday, especially on news that China has banned the use of iPhones for work among governmental officials.

However, he pushed back that fears of a significant shift in the use of Apple products within China is largely overblown, as government agencies make up less than 500,000 of the 45 million iPhones expected to be sold in the country.

"We believe despite the loud noise Apple has seen massive share gains in China smartphone market as we estimate Cupertino has gained roughly 300 bps of market share in the key China market over the last 18 months with iPhone 15 giving Apple incremental momentum on this front," Ives wrote.

Features included with the new lineup will include titanium edges, an upgraded and faster A17 chip, and improved camera technology. Of note, the iPhone 15 Pro Max will boast a periscope telephoto lens, allowing for enhanced optical zoom.

The new units will also stand out from previous iPhones for not using the traditional lightning charging cable — instead, these will use the USB-C cables, due to regulatory pressures from the European Union.