'We are still in a deep economic hole': 5 economists explain why the June jobs report is weaker than it appears

"Today's report was better than expected, and I think there's no getting around calling it a positive surprise," Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, told Business Insider.

"In some ways today's report is looking in the rearview mirror because we're now two to three weeks removed from when the report was collecting data," Zhao said. "The through line of this crisis is that things can change on a weekly basis."

The topline numbers show "how the economy can recover after the initial effects of the public health crisis recede," said Zhao.

He also pointed to the 10.6 million people temporarily unemployed in June as both good and bad. While the unemployment rate is still high, those workers will hopefully be able to return to their jobs, he said.

"I was certainly pleasantly surprised by the headline number," Martha Gimbel, an economist at Schmidt Futures, told Business Insider. "The caveat is that this data was collected before the virus started surging again."

She continued: "The real lesson of today's report is that we still have the potential to add these jobs back if we can get the public health crisis under control."

Going forward, the question is "whether or not that improvement can be sustained and to whether or not it will spread to other workers as well," said Gimbel.

And, focusing on the change instead of the level is a mistake, she said. "Adding 4.8 million jobs is amazing. We are still down 15 million jobs over the course of this crisis."

"So it's really important to focus on where we are, not just how much we've improved," she said.

"Another surprisingly strong jobs report released today showed Americans were hired back by the millions last month, but as with last month's report, it came with major caveats," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

"The biggest is the surge in COVID-19 cases in many states across the country that may slow hiring significantly this summer," said Frick. "Also a possible drag: the number of weekly unemployment claims remains alarmingly high, having barely dropped from the previous week."

"The jobs recovery continues, and continues to be shambolic, but overall, the country just booked a second month of multi-million job gains."

"The pace of job creation is almost certainly not going to keep up," said Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed, in a Thursday note. "Yes, the unemployment rate might have declined, but workers are still losing jobs and signs point toward more and more of these losses becoming permanent."

He continued: "The coronavirus crisis moves so quickly that these numbers are already out of date, but the signals we can read suggest the near term future is not bright."

"The labor market was already in a bad place before the recent spikes in coronavirus cases, which could stall economic activity again. The next few weeks will be important to determine where we go next."

"Today's number certainly adds to the growing evidence of a strengthening economy in early June," said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. "With all state-wide lockdown orders having been suspended by the time of the survey week, a labor market improvement makes sense."

She continued: "These numbers will inevitably take center stage ahead of the Congressional debate on the next round of coronavirus stimulus."

"However, the US government cannot claim victory just yet. High-frequency data suggests that the labor market strength had started to wane later in the month, perhaps as households and businesses grew increasingly cautious about the rise in infection rates."

"Indeed, now, with the closings having been reversed or paused across 40% of the US, July's job report may paint a much weaker story."