A Europe with zero Russian gas flows is unimaginable as Asian competition for supplies heats up, Qatar's energy minister says

• Qatar's energy minister told the FT he can't envisage a future with zero Russian gas flows to Europe.
• Its energy supply problem could last until 2025 if Russian deliveries don't return, Saad al-Kaabi said.

Qatar's energy minister has said he can't picture a future with zero Russian natural-gas flows to Europe, as there isn't enough volume to replace the missing deliveries in the long term.

Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times warned that Europe's energy crisis could last until 2025, unless Moscow resumes its cut-off flows of gas to the region.

He also said European importers are in "huge competition" with Asian buyers for exports from Qatar, one of the world's leading exporters of liquefied natural gas, as they all hunt for alternative supply.

Al-Kaabi, who is head of state-run QatarEnergy, noted that European countries have enough gas for power and heating this winter, as storage is at full capacity. But he warned that a severe winter next year would make the energy crisis much worse, if the Ukraine war rages on and Moscow keeps the gas taps turned off.

"It's really replenishing the reserves, or the storage, for next year that's going to be the issue," Kaabi said. "So . . . next year and the following year, even up to 2025, are going to be the issue."

Russia has slashed its gas exports to Europe in retaliation to Western sanctions imposed over the Ukraine war. State energy giant recently Gazprom threatened to cut more supplies to Europe if Western price caps on Russian gas and oil are imposed.

The Qatari energy minister said he couldn't envisage a future with zero flows of Russian gas to Europe.

"If that's the case, then I think the problem is going to be huge and for a very long time," he said.

"You just don't have enough volume to bring [in] to replace that gas for the long term, unless you're saying 'I'm going to be building huge nuclear [plants], I'm going to allow coal, I'm going to burn fuel oils'."

Bernstein Research estimates European countries need to find 112 million tons of gas — equal to nearly one-third of the entire global LNG market — to replace Russian gas, the FT reported.

In the face of Russia's energy moves, European buyers have scrambled to secure alternative sources of supply from the likes of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. German utilities RWE and Uniper are nearing agreements on long-term deals to buy LNG from Qatar.

Qatar has regularly been the world's leading LNG exporter. However, the US claimed the title for the first half of 2022 as it stepped up exports to Europe.

According to Kaabi, Europe's rush to secure long-term supplies of natural gas has put the region in "huge competition" with Asian importers.

"Because of this pull of Europe wanting additional gas . . . the Asian buyers are looking at the same thing and saying 'hold on, we need to be able to secure our future development needs,'" he said.

Qatar is talking to almost every customer in Asia, who are extremely serious about nailing down deals, he added.

Just this week, China stopped sales of LNG to Europe to make sure its own households have enough gas supply for the colder months.

Qatar along with the US stands as one of the world's major LNG exporters. In July however, the US claimed the title as the "world's largest LNG exporter" during the first half of 2022.

Natural gas prices have soared this year after Russia cut flows to Europe, with Dutch TTF futures hitting highs above 346 euros ($339) per megawatt hour in August. Prices have since fallen as Europe's gas storage rapidly fills up. At last check Wednesday, European natural gas prices were up 3.33% at 117 euros ($114) per megawatt hour.