- A cutoff in Russian energy could push the
UK into a recession, British fiscal oversight says. - The Office for Budget Responsibility said that Treasury finances are on an "unsustainable path."
The UK could tip into a recession if
The OBR said in a 174-page report that
Beyond the threat of a Russian cutoff, the OBR says that a multitude of "what-if" scenarios - including an aging population, the move away from fossil fuels and toward renewables and a wider adoption of electric vehicles - all add to pressure on Britain's finances.
And the Treasury is already on an "unsustainable path," the OBR says, which paints a troubling financial outlook that will require future tax rate hikes or aggressive spending cuts. The Office said in a scenario where Moscow stops flows, it expects
But the risks are all dependent on an already unstable situation in Ukraine which is roiling energy
Inflation climbed to 9.1% in March in Britain, above the OBR-projected 8.7%. An additional risk cost that the OBR is weighing is an end to the so-called "peace dividend" delivered after the Cold War, which would require a jump in UK defense spending.