Top of the morning, readers. This year's market has brought only a sea of red, and one firm says a comeback for stocks is contingent on one thing.
Let's dive in.
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1. The war must end for the stock market to rebound. DataTrek Research said Tuesday that there could be much more downside over the coming months after a bleak start to the year, and that geopolitical events hold sway over what's to come.
But if the S&P 500 enters the fall months as weak as it is today, there's little chance it can recoup all of its losses — unless one particular event convinces investors to shift back to risk-on.
"The best chance the S&P 500 has at staging a comeback is a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a drop in oil prices as a result," analysts at DataTrek wrote on Tuesday.
The strongest snapbacks during the final two months of a year, the analysts pointed out, have followed oversold market conditions stemming from geopolitical events — specifically 1962's Cuban missile crisis, 1990's post-Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and 2001's post-9/11 period.
This year's market rout has already struck down some of the top performers. Funds like the once-soaring Tiger Global as well as Cathie Wood's Ark Invest have been hammered as investors flee growth stocks that enjoyed huge gains during the pandemic.
Tiger Global has shed $17 billion this year, while Ark's flagship fund has fallen by 75% (though Wood's fund has still seen $1.3 billion of investor flows).
In other news:
2. TerraUSD plunges early Wednesday. TerraUSD fell to $0.30 as traders warn of a "death spiral" and investors await a rescue plan. Coinbase also fell as much as 18% in pre-market trading following the company's first-quarter results. Here are the latest market moves.
3. On the docket: Alibaba Group Holding, Nikon Corp, and Walt Disney, all reporting.
4. Algorithmic stablecoin UST has struggled to maintain its peg amid the crypto bear market. "Ultimately, those types of things are what got us in trouble in 2008," one token expert told Insider. Six crypto-investing heavyweights explained why they're sounding the alarm on the project — but one's still making a bull case.
5. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought GM for the first time in a $6 million change of heart. Wood's first stake in the automaker goes against her history, as she's said before that legacy automakers "don't have the DNA" to build EVs. Here's what we know so far.
6. Russian natural gas that flows to Europe via a key Ukraine hub is set to stop today. The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine said Tuesday that shipments will halt 7 a.m. local time due to disruptions from pro-Kremlin troops. Natural gas prices surged after the report.
7. JPMorgan said Russia's economy is stronger than expected and will only suffer a shallow recession, despite sanctions. According to the bank: "The data at hand therefore do not point to an abrupt plunge in activity — at least for now."
8. An economist who called the latest stock market selloff back in March shared why the S&P 500 could sink another 20%. He also predicted how long a rebound might take — and explained what history can reveal about today's crisis.
9. A man who grew his net worth from $2.26 to over $1 million within five years explained his investment strategy. Grant Sabatier invested in index funds and individual companies to achieve financial freedom by the age of 30. He broke down exactly how he did it.
10. Upstart Holdings cratered 57% in Tuesday's trading session. Shares of the fintech company fell after it cut its yearly revenue outlook. The consumer lending platform flagged a potential recession in slashing guidance.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.) Edited by Hallam Bullock (tweet @hallam_bullock) in London.