10 things before the opening bell
Happy Wednesday, readers. The World Bank has issued a stark warning about a global debt crisis that the Russia-Ukraine war could be catalyzing. Today we break it down, then we'll dive into what's going on in the labor market.
Let's get into it.
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1. A global debt default might be looming. And developing nations are set to bear the brunt of the impact. On Tuesday, a World Bank economist said Russia's war on Ukraine could spark the worst debt crisis for developing nations in a generation.
"The Ukraine war immediately darkened the outlook for many developing countries that are major commodity importers or highly dependent on tourism or remittances," wrote Marcello Estevao, the World Bank's global director for macroeconomics, trade, and investment.
The poorest nations have increasingly taken greater amounts of variable-rate debt, which increases their vulnerability to rate hikes.
Previously, the pandemic had already rattled some economies and raised their total indebtedness to a 50-year high, Estevao wrote, and war has only exacerbated issues for these countries.
Rising interest rates will boost risks further, driven by the hawkishness of global central banks looking to bring inflation back down to earth.
Still, things could change if the Ukraine war abates. Global markets have been encouraged by peace talks, and the value of the Russian ruble has recovered to near pre-war levels. Meanwhile, oil prices have turned lower with supply concerns easing.
In other news:
2. Equities are heading lower this morning. Skepticism is growing over Russia's signal that it will withdraw its troops from around Kyiv, which is weighing on risk appetite. Take a look at what's going on here.
3. On the docket: Teton Advisors, Five Below, and Prophase Labs, all reporting.
4. A strategist at $669 billion Federated Hermes shared seven reasons why the US isn't headed for a 1970s-style stagflation crisis. Linda Duessel isn't banking on stagflation even though the risk for it is rising. She detailed 12 investments to make as stocks crush bonds during the economic expansion.
5. The ruble has returned close to pre-invasion levels. Russia-Ukraine peace talks have given rise to hope the conflict may end soon. Additionally, controls that Russia's bank imposed are also helping bring the ruble back to life after it cratered last month.
6. The NY Stock Exchange is investigating a sharp spike in Shopify's price that led to an estimated $18 million in losses. On March 18, Shopify shares ballooned from $100 to $780 in the final minute of trading — then it tumbled in post-market trading.
7. GameStop's Ryan Cohen scored a $600 million gain on the meme stock within a single week. The activist investor and Reddit icon upped his stake in the video-game retailer last week. His 9.1 million shares are now worth $1.7 billion.
8. This little-known prop shop manages more than $100 million of crypto. The firm's cofounder, Bryn Solomon, told Insider how he finds high-upside trades in a bear market — and how his team identifies which tokens to target.
9. Bank of America named seven financial stocks that are best-positioned to outperform amid high inflation and rising interest rates. These domestically-focused bank stocks have promising outlooks for profit margins in the current landscape. See the full list here.
10. New jobs data shows the historic labor shortage continues. The US boasted 11.3 million job openings last month, according to government data published Tuesday. That number's barely changed since January.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.)