10 things before the opening bell
It's good to see you here. Today we're going over one of the few commodities that hasn't skyrocketed over the last month — and how it's affecting the red-hot housing market. Then, we take a look at the latest in Elon Musk's tussle with the SEC.
Here we go.
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1. As most commodities have surged in March, lumber is dropping. That's because the housing market cooled in February, and mortgage rates are spiking since the Fed's rate hike. New home sales have slipped for two consecutive months, missing forecasts, and lumber seems set on bucking the trend of other supply-constrained commodities.
February home sales were down 6% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted rate. With the Fed hiking interest rates last week, the average traditional 30-year fixed mortgage rate surged to 4.72% on Tuesday, marking the first time in three years the figure has climbed past 4%.
And it all leads back to lumber. Higher rates means that homes are less affordable for consumers, and that monthly mortgage payments increase. This leads to a slowdown in new construction next year — which ultimately pulls lumber prices down.
This month, lumber has fallen 22% from early March's nine-month high of $1,357 per thousand board feet.
All the while, other commodities like oil, gold, and wheat have gone haywire in recent weeks. A wealth manager even said the "new FANG" investment includes fuel, agriculture, natural resources, and gold.
In other news:
2. US futures are heading higher. But equities elsewhere are on the decline and trading is nervous ahead of a series of key meetings of Western leaders, as the Ukrainian president calls for a tougher line on Russia. Here's what's happening across the markets.
3. Earnings coming up: Autoweb Inc, FitLife Brands, and Kane Biotech, all reporting.
4. Mega-billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried broke down the three main stories that will drive the crypto market going forward. The FTX founder and CEO is laser-focused on how regulation will impact the crypto market — and is keeping a close eye on these two other factors.
5. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon reportedly told President Biden the US must increase domestic energy production. The exec also said that Europe has to end its reliance on Russian oil. See the details behind the closed-door White House meeting that top CEOs attended.
6. The 'new FANG' trade will be in commodities amid the market turmoil sparked by Russia's war in Ukraine, according to a wealth manager. Prices of oil, wheat, gold, and other commodities have soared since the invasion began — and energy companies have made up a majority of the S&P 500's top performing stocks this year.
7. Elon Musk won't be let off the hook for Twitter monitoring. The SEC told a judge that Musk's bid to quash a 2018 agreement that requires his tweets to be overseen is invalid. "When it comes to civil settlements, a deal is a deal," the SEC wrote in a filing.
8. Two leading Wall Street firms offered their best recommendations for what to buy during a "stagflation" scenario. Investors are growing more concerned that prices could keep going up amid a stretch of weak growth. Experts at Jefferies and Nuveen explained how traders can best position themselves for success.
9. Wall Street's biggest players subscribe to Tom Essaye's daily stock-market outlook. The founder behind Sevens Report Research shared with Insider why his outlook for what comes next has deteriorated since Monday morning. Here's why he sees a growing risk to stocks — and the two sectors he's most bullish on right now.
10. Russia has a series of bond payment deadlines looming that the country must pay to avoid a default. Notably, the Russian government must face a $2 billion bond maturing in early April — but that's only part of its $4.5 billion of debt payments due in 2022.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.)