10 things before the opening bell
Greetings, readers. Today we're covering why Russia's oil might not be able to prop up its economy, and then we're checking in on how the classic Wall Street fear gauge is doing.
Here we go.
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1. Russia's oil might not be able to save its economy. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, about 3 million barrels of petroleum per day, or 3% of global production, have been effectively taken out of the global supply.
That makes the conflict the largest supply shock in decades — and it's sent oil prices haywire, with some experts forecasting higher prices to come.
The US and UK have already barred Russian oil, and the European Union is weighing a similar move. It's even unlikely that China could help Russia by taking on greater crude supply.
"There is very limited spare capacity in oil pipelines connecting China to Russia, and it is unclear where China would procure the oil tankers required for shipping more oil to China and at what cost," said the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Famed commodities trader Pierre Andurand told Bloomberg last week that banks — including Chinese banks — don't want to finance Russian oil cargoes. Until the world can once again trust Russia, he said, oil from the country is likely "gone for good."
Here's a look at how Russia's petroleum exports compare to the rest of the world:
In other news:
2. US index futures are under pressure. Crude oil heading back towards $120 a barrel and investor nervousness around more sanctions on Russia are undermining risk assets. Here's what's happening on the markets so far.
3. On the docket: KB Home, General Mills, and JinkoSolar, all reporting.
4. Goldman Sachs shared a list of stock picks that offer impressive opportunities for profit growth ahead. Even as inflation chokes corporate margins across the board, the bank said it expects these companies to fare the best — see the 23 stocks here.
5. The stock market is set for more short-term upside after Wall Street's fear gauge fell five days in a row. Susquehanna International Group pointed out that a five-day decline in the VIX below 25 has led to strong two-week, one-month, and two-month average S&P 500 returns.
6. The former head of the SEC said the regulator is overstepping with its proposed climate disclosure rules. Jay Clayton said the Securities and Exchange Commission is making a policy assumption — and he doesn't think that's the role the regulator is meant to play.
7. Warren Buffet's disdain for investment bankers led to a lower takeover price for Alleghany shareholders. Reports said Buffett specifically cautioned Alleghany that he didn't want Berkshire Hathaway footing the bill for investment banking fees — so the end result was Buffett subtracting $27 million from the takeover price.
8. Paulina McPadden's global stock fund has been the best in the world for three years. She broke down why only a few stocks ever really matter for investors — and then detailed which three are the most important to her.
9. These individuals saved enough money to quit or scale back their day jobs so they could design the lives they want to live. Insider spoke with early retirees and individuals, and they shared how they increased their savings rate and put money to work. From the people who have done it, here are four steps anyone can take to become financially free.
10. Investors should stick with homebuilder stocks because demand remains strong, according to Jefferies. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has climbed past 4% for the first time in three years, and that has put downward pressure on certain companies. "Nevertheless, the backdrop for housing is still rooted in solid fundamentals."
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.)