10 things before the opening bell
Good morning. Fed Chair Powell said the Russia-Ukraine crisis is causing uncertainty, Fundstrat's Tom Lee believes the market has bottomed out, and seven Wall Street pros explained why they're ringing the alarm on a 2022 recession.
Here we go.
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1. The Fed is still on track to hike rates, but expectations for a big jump have eased. As war continues in Ukraine, investors' expectations for an aggressive 50 basis-point rate hike this month have fallen to near zero, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he's inclined to propose an increase of 25 basis points this month.
But Powell did indicate that a half-point hike was still on the table for this year if inflation keeps running hot.
"To the extent inflation comes in higher or is more persistently high than that, then we would be prepared to move more aggressively," said Powell Wednesday.
The near-term effects on the US economy as a result of the geopolitical crisis and the West's sanctions against Russia remain highly uncertain, Powell noted. He said the situation calls for nimble monetary policy.
Meanwhile, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said in an interview this week the sanctions are hurting the US in "a profound way." He anticipates that Americans will have to shoulder steep costs for the West's sanctions on Russia.
"American taxpayers are going to pay for this in the form of higher interest rates on our debt," Griffin told Bloomberg.
In other news:
2. US futures are flatlining as investors weigh up the impact of surging oil. OPEC+ is sticking to its output plan, despite the turmoil in Ukraine. Here's what's happening on the markets right now.
3. Earnings on deck: Best Buy, Gap Inc, and Costco, all reporting.
4. Morgan Stanley shared which stocks to buy up despite an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and slower earnings growth. As investing gets increasingly difficult and unpredictable, certain stocks are set to outperform. Here's a list of 47 that Morgan Stanley likes.
5. The stock market is in the "eye of the storm" of uncertainty but it has already hit bottom and is set to bounce back, said Fundstrat. "Markets don't bottom on 'good news' coming, they bottom on bad news," said Tom Lee, who named three reasons for market bullishness.
6. The CEO of Binance said it's "unethical" to block all Russians from accessing the crypto exchange. While the company is freezing the accounts of Russians targeted by international sanctions, the CEO said it will not keep all Russians off the platform. He said the company won't be expanding its restrictions beyond the list of sanctioned individuals.
7. Russia's central bank has cracked down harder on overseas money. The bank put restrictions on foreigners trying to move money out of the country, and also banned them from collecting bond payments. Here's what to know.
8. A pro-golfer-turned crypto venture capitalist explained why he's launching a fund focused on blockchain companies in India. James McDowall, who bought bitcoin at $1,800, also shared two early-stage crypto projects in NFT gaming and DeFi that his fund has bet on.
9. Meet the seven market experts that are sounding the recession alarm in 2022. See why a growing number of Wall Street pros are concerned about what this year will bring — and then meet three market bulls who say all those worries are overblown.
10. Even if inflation cools off, certain goods and services probably won't get any cheaper. The chart shows apartment rent has increased every month for a decade. Fighting inflation isn't one-dimensional, as the costs of things like rent are far less likely to turn negative — meaning they rarely, if ever, see a price drop.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.)