10 things before the opening bell
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1. JPMorgan has a different take on the impact of Ukraine-Russia tensions. As investors fret over interest rate policy, analysts led by Marko Kolanovic write that any conflict could spark a dovish reassessment by central banks.
In a Monday note, the bank said the bull market in stocks is "far from over," and the recent sell-off is overdone. The market, according to the analysts, has already priced in most of the bad news, whether it is hawkish Fed policy, a recession, or military conflict in Ukraine.
"The stock market is not only in correction, it is in bear market territory without a recession in sight," the analysts wrote. Strength in the broader economy should continue to buoy stocks even as investors digest a number of negative headlines.
Still, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has shaken financial markets this week, and other analysts think a war could send energy prices soaring and even tip several economies into recession.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said a stock market "polar vortex" could commence following an invasion, and the global chief investment officer of Credit Suisse said we could see a "strong increase in financial market volatility."
JPMorgan's Kolanovic, however, remains optimistic, and still sees 2022 being a year of economic recovery and double-digit earnings growth.
2. Stock futures are edging lower. Relief over an easing in Russia-Ukraine tensions has given way to concern about the outlook for inflation ahead of the release of the Fed's latest minutes. Here's the latest on the markets.
3. Morgan Stanley shared a list of energy stocks that all offer upside. Even as inflation soars, geopolitical tensions rise, and oil flirts with $100 per barrel, these six companies are the bank's picks to own right now.
4. Earnings on deck: Hilton Worldwide, NVIDIA, and Hyatt Hotels, all reporting.
5. The recession alarm is ringing on Wall Street. The bond market is spooking investors, as the US bond yield curve has flattened dramatically in recent weeks. Here's what to know about the classic recessionary signal.
6. Anime NFTs called Azukis overtook Bored Apes and CryptoPunks in one-month sales. Azuki is now the eighth most-traded collection with more than $344 million in sales volume. Now, the creators are aiming to score an animated series and games.
7. Investors believe the S&P 500 would need to drop another 16% before the Fed moves to stem the decline, said Bank of America. Stock market sentiment is bearish but not majorly so, according to findings from its February fund managers survey. Here's what would have to happen to catalyze a "Fed put."
8. Most crypto investors wouldn't sell even if prices crashed 80%. That's according to a new Deutsche Bank report — it also said that nearly half of those surveyed have made crypto trading a new career or are considering it.
9. A legendary fund manager shared the secret sauce that helped him build out a $1 billion financials fund that excelled coming out of the '08 crisis. Value investor Chris Davis, who is on the board of Berkshire Hathaway, explained what to do as rates rise this year and gave three surprising names to bet on right now.
10. A crypto analyst who bought solana for under $2 and sold at over $230 broke down his strategy. He gave his tips for identifying what projects look strong and how to find them early — and also shared six altcoins he's betting on now.
Event invite for Insider subscribers: The stock market remains volatile as the Federal Reserve prepares to undo its pandemic-era policies. Join us on February 23 for a webinar with two top strategists on how investors should approach the weeks ahead. Sign up here.
Compiled by Phil Rosen. Feedback? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.
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