S&P'S STOVALL: 'March Madness' Is Over, Prepare For 'April Anxiety'

But that was then.

And according to S&P Capital IQ's Sam Stovall, Q1 2013 S&P 500 EPS growth is so far seen at just 0.6%, leading him to ask: are investors are lulling themselves into a false sense of security?

His answer: it's very possible.

From Stovall's latest note:

History has shown that actual earnings frequently outpace expectations. What’s more, analysts are optimistic about forward guidance, based on the expected improvement in the global economic growth trajectory.

However, an elevated negative-to-positive guidance ratio and a variety of headwinds could cause Q1 2013 results to replace Q2 2012 EPS as the trough quarter for this earnings cycle. As a result, the uncertainty over Q1 2013 EPS growth and forward guidance will probably allow for a seamless transition of tension from March Madness to April Anxiety.

Stocks are up slightly this morning.