- March Madness is back and college basketball fans around the country are busy filling out their brackets.
- Nailing the Final Four is one of the most important aspects of winning your bracket pool.
March Madness is back.
On Sunday, the field for the NCAA men's basketball tournament was released, setting millions of Americans to work in their quest to build the perfect bracket.
Truth be told, unless you have been struck by God or are literally from the future, the chance of your bracket being perfect is slim to none.
Thankfully, you don't need perfection to win your local bracket pool. Often, nailing a few of the Final Four teams and the eventual champion will be enough to finish in the money.
Looking back over the data from the past 30 brackets, dating back to 1991, one number sticks out when considering how to build your Final Four: 11.
Specifically, 11.3333333 and more threes forever.
Over the past 30 tournaments, the sum total of the seeds of the Final Four teams has averaged just above 11. With this in mind, 11 can serve as a guidepost of sorts for just how wild to make your Final Four.
If the sum of your Final Four seeds is 19 or 20, it might be a sign that you should dial it back a bit. Conversely, if your Final Four is landing at just five or six because you leaned heavily into favorites, it might be good to see if there's a sleeper pick you like coming out of one of the regions.
There are plenty of ways to get to 11-ish for your Final Four.
One 1-seed, a 2-seed, a 3-seed, and a 5-seed is one option that lands at exactly 11 (as happened in 2019). One 1-seed, two 2-seeds, and a 4-seed will get you to a total of nine, which is close enough (as happened in 2012). If you're feeling a little frisky, Two 1-seeds, a 2-seed, and an 11-seed (as happened in 2021) is certainly an interesting proposition to get you to 15.
It's worth noting that in recent years, a little bit of boldness has paid off for those that nailed their picks.
In all but two tournaments since 2011, at least one team seeded No. 7 or lower has reached the Final Four.
Since 2014, three 7-seeds and two 11-seeds, as well as a 5-, 8-, and 10-seed have all found their way to the last weekend of the tournament. That's eight of the 28 Final Four spots available over that span, taken by a team that was a 5-seed or worse to start the tournament.
Nailing the Final Four is never easy, but especially for those playing in a bigger pool, getting three of the four or even running the table on all four can mean a huge payday.
While the "Rule of 11" (as I've now decided to call it) is not a hard and fast one, it's a good guide, and how you get there is up to you.