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What the NFL playoffs would look like if the season ended today

Tyler Lauletta   

What the NFL playoffs would look like if the season ended today
Najee Harris.AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
  • Heading into Week 10, we are officially halfway through the 2021 NFL season.
  • If the season ended today, the NFL playoffs would look somewhat surprising.

The NFL season is halfway done.

If the season ended today, there'd be some surprise teams heading into the postseason. Currently, the Cardinals and Titans sit atop the NFC and AFC, respectively, while the Falcons and Patriots are holding on as the last team to reach Wild Card weekend if the season ended today.

Of course, the season does not end today. With nine weeks of football left to play, there's still plenty of time for things to shift. Below we go division-by-division to examine how the NFL playoff picture currently looks.

Chances to make the playoffs based on FiveThirtyEight projections.

If the season ended today, here's how Wild Card Weekend would look in the AFC:

#1 Tennessee Titans — first-round bye

#7 New England Patriots at #2 Baltimore Ravens

#6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #3 Los Angeles Chargers

#5 Las Vegas Raiders at #4 Buffalo Bills

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

AFC East: Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen.      AP Photo/Matt Patterson

Current record: 5-3

Chances to make the playoffs: 89%

One thing to know: The Bills are currently just a half-game ahead of the Patriots for the top spot in the AFC East but now sit with a 2-0 divisional record. With a win over the Jets this weekend, they could move to 3-0 against AFC East opponents and put themselves in a good position to seal up the division title early.

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson.      Nell Redmond/AP Images

Current record: 6-2

Chances to make the playoffs: 84%

One thing to know: The AFC North is loaded, with the three teams behind the Ravens all holding five wins through nine weeks of action. The Bengals, currently fourth in the division, are the only team of the four currently with a winning record in divisional play. It's possible that three teams from the AFC North wide up playing postseason football, but it looks like it's going to be a fight to the end of the season.

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

AFC South: Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill.      AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Current record: 7-2

Chances to make the playoffs: >99%

One thing to know: The Titans currently sit atop the AFC standings and would secure the first-round bye at stake to start the postseason. Still, the team will need to figure out how to replace star running back Derrick Henry through the second half of the year.

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert.      AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Current record: 5-3

Chances to make the playoffs: 77%

One thing to know: All four teams in the AFC West currently have five wins, with the Chargers standing atop the division thanks to a 2-0 divisional record. Every intra-divisional matchup the rest of the way is going to be must-watch football.

AFC Wild Card: Las Vegas Raiders

AFC Wild Card: Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr.      AP Photo/John Munson

Current record: 5-3

Chances to make the playoffs: 43%

One thing to know: Interim head coach Rich Bisaccia has gotten off to a strong start with the Raiders since taking over mid-season. That said, Las Vegas faces a rather daunting schedule through the second half of the season, which is, in part, why their chance of making the playoffs is below 50% even though they'd make the cut if the season ended today.

AFC Wild Card: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC Wild Card: Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris.      AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Current record: 5-3

Chances to make the playoffs: 39%

One thing to know: With two games left against the Ravens, as well as a game each against the Bengals and Browns still on the scheduled, it's likely that the Steelers' postseason fate will be determined by how they play within the division.

AFC Wild Card: New England Patriots

AFC Wild Card: New England Patriots
Bill Belichick.      AP Photo/Brian Westerholt

Current record: 5-4

Chances to make the playoffs: 53%

One thing to know: Winners of three straight, the Patriots are looking like a potential emerging force in the AFC just two years since the departure of Tom Brady. With the conference looking wide open right now, don't be surprised if Bill Belichick once again finds himself at the head of the table.

If the season ended today, here's how Wild Card Weekend would look in the NFC:

#1 Arizona Cardinals — first-round bye

#7 Atlanta Falcons at #2 Green Bay Packers

#6 New Orleans Saints at #3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#5 Los Angeles Rams at #4 Dallas Cowboys

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott.      AP Photo/Ron Jenkins

Current record: 6-2

Chances to make the playoffs: 95%

One thing to know: They might not have the best record in the conference, but few teams are as sure a lock for the postseason as the Cowboys, thanks to the tragedy that is the rest of the NFC East.

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC North: Green Bay Packers
AP Photo/Matt Ludtke

Current record: 7-2

Chances to make the playoffs: 98%

One thing to know: The Packers lost last week with Aaron Rodgers sidelined after testing positive for COVID-19. If Green Bay ends the regular season one game behind the Cardinals for the top spot in the NFC and the first-round bye that goes with it, it will be impossible not to see Rodgers' absence as a turning point.

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady.      Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

Current record: 6-2

Chances to make the playoffs: 98%

One thing to know: Tom Brady is so dominant that he doesn't need to be on the field to win. During Week 9, as other powerhouses across the NFC crumbled to lesser opponents, Brady and the Buccaneers sat at home enjoying their bye week. That said, Brady would undoubtedly like to secure a first-round bye in the postseason, having made clear his dislike for the extra game the NFL added to the schedule in 2021.

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray.      AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Current record: 8-1

Chances to make the playoffs: >99%

One thing to know: The Arizona Cardinals are flying high with the best record in football. While they only hold a one-game lead over the Rams for the top spot in the NFC West standings, they also have a head-to-head win over Los Angeles that could help them with tiebreakers down the road.

NFC Wild Card: Los Angeles Rams

NFC Wild Card: Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford.      AP Photo/John Munson

Current record: 7-2

Chances to make the playoffs: 95%

One thing to know: The Rams are still in the thick of the race for the NFC West division title and the home playoff game that would come with it, but regardless of if they wind up taking the division, it's all but certain that barring a trainwreck in the second half of the season, the Rams will be playing come January.

NFC Wild Card: New Orleans Saints

NFC Wild Card: New Orleans Saints
Trevor Siemian.      AP Photo/Derick Hingle

Current record: 5-3

Chances to make the playoffs: 65%

One thing to know: Despite the loss of starting quarterback Jameis Winston, the Saints are more likely to get into the postseason than not at this point of the season. Still, Sean Payton and the Saints' lockdown defense have some hard work ahead.

NFC Wild Card: Atlanta Falcons

NFC Wild Card: Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts.      AP Photo/John Bazemore

Current record: 4-4

Chances to make the playoffs: 25%

One thing to know: The final spot in the NFC playoff race is absolutely wide open. The Falcons are 4-4, but nearly the rest of the conference is still within striking distance should anyone get hot through the second half of the year. Atlanta has won three of their past four games, but they'll need to keep moving in that direction if they're to hang on for the postseason.

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