The Knicks' Kristaps Porzingis trade shocked the NBA, but 2 years later, it's harder and harder to pick a winner

• It's hard to declare whether the Mavs or Knicks won the Kristaps Porzingis trade two years later.
• The Mavs are good, but face questions over whether Porzingis can be their second star and how to get to the next level.
• The Knicks have rebounded from the trade, but owe little of their success to the return of the trade.

Few NBA trades are tougher to judge than the Kristaps Porzingis blockbuster.

When the New York Knicks decided to trade their disgruntled franchise superstar in January 2019, most analysts chalked it up to a win for the Dallas Mavericks, pairing an All-Star big man with rookie sensation Luka Doncic.

The Knicks had quickly cut ties with a player who had little leverage over the situation and didn't get a ton in return - veterans Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan, a young point guard in Dennis Smith Jr., and two future first-round picks.

The trade looked even worse for the Knicks the following summer when they were unable to use the cap space they cleared in the move to sign superstars like Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.

Yet two years later, the move isn't a clear win or loss for either team and instead shows the evolving, complex nature of NBA trades and the challenges of building teams.

Is Porzingis the long-term answer for the Mavs?

It's difficult to tell how satisfied the Mavs are with Porzingis. On the one hand, he is an elite offensive talent, averaging 20 points per game on career-best efficiency this season. On paper, he is almost an ideal partner with Doncic.

They landed such a player for relatively little. For comparison, the Milwaukee Bucks traded five future first-round picks in November to land Jrue Holiday.

The trade also brought Tim Hardaway Jr. to Dallas, a surprising contributor and a big part of their team the last two seasons. (His impending free agency may be a tricky one for Dallas to navigate).

However, Porzingis' frequent injuries are also a cause for concern.

Porzingis arrived in Dallas recovering from a torn ACL. A torn meniscus ended his 2020 season just three games into the playoffs. He has already missed 28 games this season and is currently out with knee soreness.

The injuries may have taken a toll on him on defense. While he's a good shot-blocker and rim-protector, that hasn't translated to better team defense - the Mavs' defensive rating has been three points better with Porzingis off the floor this season.

Porzingis has struggled to defend in space and corralling smaller, quicker players.

There has also been increased focus on Porzingis' relationship with Doncic, something the Mavs haven't exactly downplayed - team owner Mark Cuban compared them to amiable colleagues who don't get drinks after work. In addition to Porzingis' health, the playoffs will put a spotlight on how well he fits with Doncic and whether he can raise the team to win a series.

The Mavs are in a familiar position for playoff teams - a good team trying to get better. But with Porzingis on a $153 million contract and Doncic due for a max extension, they'll have limited financial flexibility to make big upgrades.

With few clear paths available, Porzingis' ability to be that second star may be the best way for Dallas to get to the next level.

The Knicks have stumbled into a good team

The fallout of the Knicks' failed summer of 2019 has led to one of the more remarkable stories in the NBA: the emergence of Julius Randle.

The Knicks signed Randle to a three-year, $63 million contract after striking out on the top free agents in 2019. After a rocky first season, Randle has made a stunning leap into an All-Star. He's posting the NBA's third-ever 20-10-5 season on 40% three-point shooting. He's the favorite for Most Improved Player and will likely make one of the three All-NBA teams.

Randle has been the face of this surprising, playoffs-bound. They've been a top-five defense all season and one of the NBA's best offenses over the last two months. Like Randle, the Knicks' sudden turnaround has been stunning.

Suggesting this was all part of the Knicks' plan when trading Porzingis would be disingenuous, however.

This is largely a different team and organization than the one Porzingis left. Only two current Knicks ever even appeared in a game with Porzingis: Derrick Rose and Frank Ntilikina. There is a new head coach, new coaching staff, and new front office leaders.

Trying to tie the Knicks' success this season to the Porzingis trade requires mental gymnastics.

• Julius Randle was signed with the cap space the Knicks opened up in the Porzingis trade.
• Derrick Rose was acquired in a trade for Smith this season.
• Surprising rookie Immanuel Quickley was drafted with 25th pick in the 2020 draft, which the Knicks acquired after trading the 27th overall pick, which they got from the LA Clippers last year in exchange for Marcus Morris, who they signed in the summer of 2019. (Deep breath).

In some ways, it feels as if the Knicks stumbled into this success, rather than executing some brilliant plan that began with trading Porzingis. Remarkably, the Knicks have landed on their feet while getting almost nothing in return.

But the Porzingis trade may still pay off for the Knicks in future years. The Knicks own the Mavs 2021 first-round pick and a top-10 protected 2023 first-rounder. Those two assets are part of what makes the Knicks' future look so bright: a surplus of picks, combined with a young core and cap space. Perhaps they can package those picks for another star.

Of course, turning those assets into tangible productivity is another challenge unto itself. Just ask the Mavs how easy it is to continue building up.

Two years removed from the deal, the Knicks and Mavs are both in good places. Much is still to be determined about how the two franchises fair in the coming years.