- The Knicks starters are being crushed by opponents while their bench is dominating.
- The team must decide whether to tweak its starting lineup or leave a dominant bench in tact.
The
But while the Knicks starters are flailing, their bench unit is crushing opponents.
An 8-7 start would typically inspire joy amongst fans of one of the
It has left Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau in a quagmire: deciding whether to adjust a starting lineup in need of tweaking or leave a dominant reserve group that has won them games in tact.
Through 15 games, the Knicks starting lineup of Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier, R.J. Barrett, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson has been outscored by 16 points per 100 possessions.
The Knicks have a negative net rating (meaning they've been outscored) when each of those five players are on the court.
Meanwhile, the Knicks bench unit is the best in the NBA. That's not hyperbole: the five-man unit of Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Alec Burks, Obi Toppin, and Taj Gibson has a net rating of 28. No other lineup that has played at least 75 minutes in the NBA this season has a better scoring margin.
A look at the Knicks on/off numbers shows the gulf between the two units.
The Knicks starters have frequently fallen into a hole, only for the second unit to dig them out of it. Second halves have featured slides, followed by valiant comeback attempts, either resulting in rousing wins or dispiriting losses.
Thibodeau, a principled, traditional coach, often sticks closely to his preferred rotations. But the chasm between the two units leaves him with a difficult choice late in games to either risk exhaustion by leaving in the reserves who got them back in the game, or go back to starters who had not played well.
In perhaps a sign of his thinking, the five-man bench unit has played the most fourth-quarter minutes this season.
An adjustment isn't so easy
Naturally, fans and observers have called for lineup changes in hopes of creating a spark.
The problem is the Knicks starting five is a somewhat logical grouping. The unit consists of the Knicks' two biggest offseason acquisitions in Walker and Fournier, a rising young star in Barrett, a reigning All-Star in Randle, and Robinson, the team's best big man.
Subbing any of these players out of the starting lineup might ruffle some feathers.
Walker would perhaps be the most logical choice to move to the bench, especially with the effective Rose or Quickley replacing him. While Walker has shot well from three-point range, he hasn't had his usual verve knifing into the lane (likely a result of persistent knee issues in recent years) and is a weak point in the starting lineup's defense.
However, Walker was the team's most celebrated free agent signing in years and might bristle at the demotion.
Randle also hasn't played up to expectations after a stellar 2020-21 season. His shooting has regressed across the board — 35% from three, down from 41% last season, and 26.5% from midrange, down from 41% last year. He's getting to the free throw line less often and turning the ball over at a high rate.
But benching Randle, who nearly single-handedly led this Knicks revival, would strike many as an unfair move.
Fournier may be the next best choice, but after signing a $78 million contract with the Knicks in the summer, he likely wasn't imagining a 6th-man role.
The starters will look better with a few more makes and opponent misses
The Knicks could use a dose of good luck. Last year, Knicks' opponents shot just 33.7% from three-point range, the best figure in the league and a number many expected to tick up. Sure enough it has: opponents are hitting 35% of their 3s against the Knicks this year. But this has occurred in a season where eight teams are holding opponents below 33% shooting from three. The Knicks went from an elite three-point defense to a below-average one.
Likewise, the Knicks haven't had much consistency from their own shooters. Barrett has hit just 15 of his last 54 three-point attempts (27%) after a red-hot start to the year. Fournier is posting the worst shooting season of his career and has missed 33 of his last 43 three-point attempts.
While a regression from Randle was expected, his 26% shooting from midrange is seven points worse than his career average.
Thibodeau must decide whether he can ride it out with the starters in case some shots start falling or make a change.
Either way, he sounded the alarm weeks ago when asked if the sample size was too small to judge.
"You know what they say," Thibodeau told reporters. "When it's 10 games, you say you need 20. When you get to 20, you say 30. And you get to 30, you say 40. And then before you know it, the season's over, so it's a bunch of bullshit."