- The NFL is down to the conference championship games and yet the Super Bowl is still wide open.
- The Chiefs are the favorite, but all four have a good shot.
Only three games are left in the NFL season, and the chase for the Lombardi Trophy is still wide open.
The AFC and NFC championship games are now set, with the Philadelphia Eagles facing the San Francisco 49ers in one semifinal and the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in the other.
Despite the often chaotic nature of the NFL's win-or-go-home playoffs, this year, the postseason seemingly got the final four right with the four best teams (with all due respect to the Buffalo Bills) still in the hunt. As a result, there is no easy path to the Super Bowl trophy and no heavy favorite among the four to win the big game.
According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo computer model, the Chiefs are the favorite to win it all, but their lead is not big. Here is a look at the chances the model gives to each team to win the Super Bowl:
- Kansas City Chiefs — 32.0%
- Cincinnati Bengals — 25.0%
- Philadelphia Eagles — 24.0%
- San Francisco 49ers — 19.0%
Those numbers do take into account the injured ankle that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered this weekend. Kansas City's chances increase slightly to 35% if Mahomes is healthy.
The model also indicates that the Super Bowl winner is likelier to come from the AFC, as the Chiefs and Bengals are the top two teams.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Chiefs are a heavier favorite to win the Super Bowl. Here is a look at the chances the model gives to each team to win the Super Bowl:
- Kansas City Chiefs — 44.7%
- Philadelphia Eagles — 24.0%
- Cincinnati Bengals — 23.4%
- San Francisco 49ers — 7.9%
In this case, ESPN's model flips the Eagles and Bengals, although they are still nearly identical. Meanwhile, the 49ers take a big hit in their chances.
Meanwhile, in the sports betting world, things are even closer. The early odds of winning the Super Bowl are nearly identical for the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bengals, with the 49ers slightly behind the other three (via Vegas Insider).
FanDuel
- Kansas City Chiefs +250
- Philadelphia Eagles +260
- Cincinnati Bengals +260
- San Francisco 49ers +310
BETMGM
- Philadelphia Eagles +260
- Kansas City Chiefs +270
- Cincinnati Bengals +270
- San Francisco 49ers +300
Caesars Sportsbook
- Kansas City Chiefs +260
- Philadelphia Eagles +260
- Cincinnati Bengals +275
- San Francisco 49ers +320
PointsBet
- Philadelphia Eagles +250
- Kansas City Chiefs +260
- Cincinnati Bengals +280
- San Francisco 49ers +300