The Australian Open final lineup is proof that Novak Djokovic's vaccine absence has ensured he'll end the tournament as its biggest loser

• Whoever wins the Australian Open Sunday, absent reigning champion Novak Djokovic will be the loser.
• If Daniil Medvedev wins, Djokovic will lose his status as world number one.

After close to two weeks of pulsating tennis in the Melbourne heat, the men's final for the Australian Open is set.

Russian world number two and tournament favorite Daniil Medvedev takes on 20-time Grand Slam winner Rafael Nadal Sunday at the Rod Laver Arena.

Both men would be worthy winners.

Medvedev has battled through the tournament, coming back from two sets down in his quarterfinal and proving why many consider him the best hard court player in tennis right now. Nadal's tournament has been one of resilience, fighting to the final of an event most didn't even think he'd play.

However, whoever wins, there will be one clear loser from the final: Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic, of course, didn't compete in this year's tournament after being deported from Australia on the eve of the tournament following a weeks-long battle surrounding his COVID vaccination status and his eligibility to be in the country.

Unable to defend his title, Djokovic now faces an unpalatable blow to his ambitions in 2022, regardless of who wins.

That's because victory for either man will rob Djokovic of one of two key prizes in tennis.

Djokovic could lose his place as tennis' best player to Medvedev

Should Medvedev win and claim a second Grand Slam title on top of his 2021 US Open victory, he will almost certainly ascend to the top of the ATP world rankings, ousting Djokovic.

The Serbian has been world number one since February 2020, and holds the record for the most overall weeks at the top, clocking 357 weeks as the best male tennis player on the planet during his career.

Djokovic is currently over 2,000 ranking points ahead of Medvedev, but would see that gap completely extinguished should Medvedev best Nadal Sunday.

For victory in the tournament, Medvedev would take home 2,000 ATP ranking points, bringing his cumulative total to just shy of the 11,000 Djokovic currently possesses.

Rankings points are based on the previous 12 months, so come February 21 — the anniversary of Djokovic's 2021 Australian Open win — the Serbian will lose 2,000 points, while Medvedev, who lost in the 2021 final, will lose just 1,200 points.

By that day, points adjustments from the previous 12 months will mean that — barring a surprise return to action for Djokovic before February 21 — Medvedev will take the number one spot with 9,235 points compared to Djokovic's 8,875, as first reported by Forbes' Adam Zagoria, and later calculated by Insider.

Nadal could beat Djokovic to becoming the most decorated man in Grand Slam history

The more straightforward negative scenario for Djokovic comes in the form of a Nadal win.

Nadal, Djokovic, and Roger Federer all have 20 Grand Slam singles titles, six more than their nearest rival Pete Sampras on 14.

With Federer aged 40 and struggling with recurring knee injuries, the battle for the title of most-decorated Grand Slam champion in men's history is now a straight shootout between Nadal and Djokovic.

Djokovic is a year younger and generally considered to have greater physical longevity, but should Nadal win on Sunday, he'll move into the solo lead on overall Grand Slam victories.

With the French Open next up — a tournament Nadal has won 13 times and will be favorite for in 2022 — the Spaniard will likely be on 22 majors before Djokovic even has a chance to win his next title at Wimbledon in July.

Medvedev even alluded to this in his post-match interview after beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis Friday, saying: "What's funny is again I'm going to play someone going for the 21st Slam."

"I guess last time Rafa was watching," he said, alluding to his US Open win over Djokovic last September.

"I think Novak will be watching this one in two days also."