Kumar Sangakkara’s beyond-the-stump forecast on who will win ICC World Cup 2023 and the fate of ODIs

• Pakistan could be the dark horse this season, even though the Sri Lankan cricketer is rooting for three other teams.
• The man with the maximum dismissals in ODIs as a wicketkeeper, calls Ashwin’s inclusion ‘fantastic’ for India’s World Cup chances.
• Shubman Gill is the man to watch out for for India, given that he has scored over 1,200 plus ODI runs in the current calendar year.

For a cricket crazy country like India, the World Cup is much more than a tournament and it brings plenty of action both on and off the field. Plenty of time and money is spent on picking winners even before the tournament starts with experts found at every tea stall playing Nostradamus. As the ICC World Cup kicks off today, Business Insider India caught up with former Sri Lankan cricketer, Kumar Sangakkara, to do some crystal ball gazing and asked him to play Paul – The Animal Oracle – who became famous across the world for picking Spain as the winner of the FIFA World Cup in 2010.

Australia, India and England are the three world cricket super powers and it is no surprise that Sangakkara expects them to be jostling for glory in the knockout stages of the tournament. “You can't look past India, because India will go in as favourites home conditions. They love playing at home, they know them very well. And in terms of the way they've been playing in the recent past, it's been amazing to see how they have really gelled as a side.”

From the late ’90s to the mid-2010s, Sri Lanka was possibly only next to Australia when it came to ICC tournaments. The islanders won the World Cup in 1996 and also reached the finals of the tournament in 2007 and 2011. Along with this, they were also runners up in the T20 World Cups in 2009 and 2012, lifting it finally in 2014.

One of the men at the forefront of this Sri Lankan dominance, Kumar Sangakkara, also shed light on the dwindling popularity of the 50-over format as a whole. But more on that later.

The tournament favourites

India won the World Cup in 2011, the last time it was played in the subcontinent and the conditions this time too will suit the host nation. Sangakkara also remembers the tournament, except the final with fondness. “I remember it very fondly, except for the final of course, as a wonderful campaign. I mean, we've had a history of amazing World Cups. In terms of playing World Cups, we knew how to play them. We knew how to win games and unfortunately, you know, came second in the final hurdle (in 2011). We had a few injuries at the last minute which kind of derailed our campaign but overall, I think it was a fantastic tournament.”

Back to 2023, Sangakkara reckons apart from India, England will be the team to watch out for. The defending champions play an ultra attacking version of the sport under the tutelage of Brendon Mcullum and Jos Buttler-led side has been also boosted by the return of two formidable allrounders from retirement – Moeen Ali and Ben Stokes.

“England, I would put that number two in terms of being favourites. Because again, they've been playing great cricket. Their spin (department) is good. They've got a huge amount of batting depth and all rounder depth,” says Sangakkara.

The fourth team that can make it to the semis is South Africa, as per the former Sri Lankan captain, who also picked a dark horse which could go all the way. “I will put India, England, Australia and South Africa as my four to watch… I mean sentimentally I would love Sri Lanka to be in the mix. I think they can definitely make the playoffs. They play very well in big tournaments. But that's a secondary consideration in terms of the front runners… I'll have to add Pakistan as a kind of dark horse that might win the tournament,” he says.

Batters to watch out for

World Cups are long tournaments and consistency is a key in going the long distance. Sangakkara’s records show that he was an absolute master at churning out one major performance after another – he holds the record for the maximum consecutive 50s (7 in Tests) and also has the maximum consecutive centuries in a World Cup edition (four back-to-back centuries in 2015).

However, the humble southpaw says that the latter record is ‘easily’ possible for some of the heavyweights that will enter this edition. “In terms of India, there are Kohli and Sharma at the top who are fantastic and have the ability to do it. In every side – Kane Williamson for New Zealand, England play a different kind of game where they just all out attack-attack. And they have players who can easily do the same. I think every country will go there… Babar Azam of Pakistan. So, there are quite a lot of players,” he says.

For Indian fans, Shubman Gill’s current form – he has scored over 1,200 plus ODI runs in the current calendar year – will be of key importance in the tournament too. Sangakkara points out that he will be crucial to the campaign: “Anyone who bets at the top is going to be key, especially in the one day format. And yeah, his (Gill’s) ability has been, you know, unquestionable. He knows how to play beginnings.”

India’s spin selection conundrum

Sangakkara is happy that his Rajasthan Royal allrounder, Ravichandran Ashwin has finally been included in the Indian World Cup 2023 squad. He explains that selecting a World Cup squad is a tough ask for the selectors as they have to look at the balance of the squad in particular playing conditions and therefore sometimes, some favourites, such as Yuzvendra Chahal get left out.

“I think Ashwin’s inclusion is fantastic. I mean, I love the way Ashwin and Chahal bowl. India unfortunately has to balance or fortunately has to balance their squad. So it's a shame that Chahal missed out but at least one of them is there. And with that kind of experience (Ashwin’s), it is crucial in big tournaments. And of course, Jadeja is there. His place is unquestioned. Kuldeep Yadav with his left hand wrist spin adds a little bit of mystery and he's bowled exceptionally well.”

The fate of the 50-over format

A question which repeatedly crops up in modern cricket is the impact of league cricket on the 50-over format. While Test cricket still manages to hold on to a loyal base, the number of 50-over series and tournaments have dipped in recent years.

Sangakkara believes that this is a complicated topic with a lot of factors at play but agrees with the likes of Yuvraj Singh who have said that this edition of the 50-over World Cup might be one of the last. “I think it's (ODIs) going to struggle a little bit. I think it already is struggling in terms of holding the fans unless it's a benchmark tournament like the World Cup,”he says.

A solution? Sachin Tendulkar had suggested making ODIs a four-inning affair of 25 overs each sometime back. According to Sangakkara, “It could be that you play more one day cricket during a World Cup year to lead up to it and much less in terms of the rest of the four year cycle.”

However, this does not mean that the wicketkeeper with the most dismissals to his name in ODIs (482) is not hopeful about the future of the game as a whole. With women cricket getting off the blocks in true sense, he sees tremendous potential for the sport as a whole. “In terms of franchise cricket, T20, T10 as well… the game is going global. We've seen it now enter the US, we're going to see it in the Olympics. So, the global drive for cricket to be mainstream in terms of sport is there and that's another exciting kind of thing to look forward to,” he signs off.