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Ravens coach John Harbaugh showed his controversial decision to go for 2 was about more than simple math

Tyler Lauletta   

Ravens coach John Harbaugh showed his controversial decision to go for 2 was about more than simple math
Sports3 min read
  • The Baltimore Ravens lost on Sunday after failing to score on a late two-point conversion.
  • The decision to go for two sparked yet another debate around the role analytics in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens faced a tough decision in the waning seconds of their game against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

After trailing for nearly the entire second half, the Ravens had stormed back in the fourth quarter, scoring a touchdown to cut the Packers lead to 31-30 with just 42 seconds remaining and the extra point pending.

The Ravens could kick the extra point and play for overtime, or go for two and try to win the game in regulation.

The Ravens went for two, failed to convert, and lost 31-30.

It was the second time in three games that the Ravens had loss in such a fashion, having tried and failed on a similar two-point gamble against the Steelers on December 5.

Between the aggressive calls from the Ravens with the game on the line over the past few weeks, and the leaps forward several teams across the league have made in aggressive decision-making with regard to fourth down and going for two, the debate around "analytics" has once again been raging among NFL fans and commentators.

How aggressive is too aggressive? When should a team go for two? Does the spreadsheet really always tell teams to go for it?

This debate can get grating, as many arguing on either side of it are entirely convinced that they are correct.

But the ongoing argument around analytics also ignores a key factor that goes into making the decisions that are made on the football field: human choice.

Ahead of the Ravens decision to go for it on fourth down, head coach John Harbaugh wasn't just consulting a spreadsheet. Although he was undoubtedly aware of what the percentages were in the spot, before the extra point try, he consulted with his quarterback Tyler Huntley to see what he wanted to do.

Huntley said he wanted to go for it. Harbaugh obliged.

It's not the first time this year Harbaugh has consulted with his players before making such a call. Against the Chiefs in Week 2, Harbaugh had a similar conversation with quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Jackson also asked to go for it, and the Ravens converted to win the game.

After the game against the Chiefs, Harbaugh nearly admitted that his ask of Jackson was a mere formality, as he was already sure that his quarterback would want to go for the win.

"No, there wasn't," Harbaugh said when asked if there was any debate over going for it on fourth down. "I just, maybe I wanted to be sure myself, you know? I knew he was going to say yes. We were going for it at that point."

Regardless of whether or not that was also the case with Huntley against the Packers on Sunday, it makes sense that Harbaugh would want to talk things over in the moment.

Huntley, an undrafted backup quarterback making just the third start of his career, had just gone toe-to-toe with the reigning NFL MVP for 59 minutes, and had a shot to win. He had earned to have a say in the final play of the game, and Harbaugh gave him that chance.

People can criticize or celebrate the Ravens decision to go for two from either side of the analytics debate, but even the coaches that trust the chart more than most others know that there are other factors at play in a game of football.

Two weeks earlier, when the Ravens lost to the Steelers on a similar play, Harbaugh had said the team's decision to go for two was driven by the fact that they had lost too many cornerbacks during the game to risk playing into overtime. He was accounting for a factor that couldn't be accounted for on the spreadsheet.

On Sunday, Harbaugh did the same, asking a quarterback who had gotten his team into position for an unlikely victory for his take on the game.

The gamble didn't pay off this time, but it doesn't mean it was the wrong decision.

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