Only 8 NFL teams have a legit shot to win the Super Bowl
- There are three weeks left in the NFL's regular season, and the playoff picture is starting to come together.
- While any team that makes the playoffs has a chance to win the Super Bowl, only eight teams still have a legit shot to be crowned champions in February (Sorry, Tom Brady and the Bucs).
- What separates these teams is that they have either already clinched a playoff spot or are a near-lock to do so. The rest of the teams still have work to do before they can up their Super Bowl probabilities, with all current chances at less than 1%.
- The Eagles, Chiefs, and Bills are the favorites to reach the big game.
Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 13-1
Seed if season ended today: 1 (NFC)
538 probability to win the Super Bowl: 26.0%
ESPN probability to win the Super Bowl: 20.3%
One thing to know: If the season ended today, the Eagles would be the 1-seed in the NFC with a first-round bye. That is unlikely to change in the next three weeks with a two-game cushion over the Vikings and holding the tie-breaker. The bigger concern at this point is the health of Jalen Hurts, who injured his shoulder in Week 15. If he misses a game or two, the Eagles will be fine in the standings, but they'd have to worry about the injury lingering into the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 11-3
Seed if season ended today: 2 (AFC)
538 probability to win the Super Bowl: 18.0%
ESPN probability to win the Super Bowl: 23.1%
One thing to know: The Chiefs and Bills are tied atop the AFC, but if the season ended today, the Chiefs would be the 2-seed and have to play in the first round thanks to their October loss to the Bills. However, with games remaining against the Seahawks, Broncos, and Raiders, the Chiefs have a slightly better shot at ending the season as the top seed.
Buffalo Bills
Record: 11-3
Seed if season ended today: 1 (AFC)
538 probability to win the Super Bowl: 20.0%
ESPN probability to win the Super Bowl: 18.5%
One thing to know: The Bills have the Bears on the road and the Patriots at home sandwiched around a much tougher task against the Bengals in Cincinnati. If they win all three, they will be the 1-seed and have a first-round bye.
Dallas Cowboys
Record: 10-4
Seed if season ended today: 5 (NFC)
538 probability to win the Super Bowl: 8.0%
ESPN probability to win the Super Bowl: 18.7%
One thing to know: Despite already clinching a playoff spot, the Cowboys will have to go on the road in the first round, thanks to being in the same division as the Eagles. On the plus side, if the season ended today, they would play a Bucs team that has looked lost in recent weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 10-4
Seed if season ended today: 3 (AFC)
538 probability to win the Super Bowl: 9.0%
ESPN probability to win the Super Bowl: 6.5%
One thing to know: The defending AFC champs have a good shot at getting back to the Super Bowl this year, and it would help if they win their division. After going on the road against the Patriots this week, they have a home game against a Bills team fighting for a first-round bye, followed by another home game against the Ravens. That final game could decide the AFC North champion, as Baltimore holds the tie-breaker.
San Francisco 49ers
Record: 10-4
Seed if season ended today: 3 (NFC)
538 probability to win the Super Bowl: 6.0%
ESPN probability to win the Super Bowl: 5.0%
One thing to know: The good news is the 49ers have already clinched their division and will get a home game in the first round of the playoffs. The bad news is that they are on their third quarterback. They have three more weeks to prepare Brock Purdy for the playoffs, and while he has looked good so far, but the postseason can be a different beast for a rookie quarterback.
Baltimore Ravens
Record: 9-5
Seed if season ended today: 5 (AFC)
538 probability to win the Super Bowl: 3.0%
ESPN probability to win the Super Bowl: 2.7%
One thing to know: With upcoming games against the Falcons and Steelers, there is a good chance the Week 18 matchup against the Bengals will be for the division and a first-round home game.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 11-3
Seed if season ended today: 2 (NFC)
538 probability to win the Super Bowl: 4.0%
ESPN probability to win the Super Bowl: 1.7%
One thing to know: The Vikings have lost two of their last five games after starting the season 8-1, and in one of the wins, they needed OT after falling behind the Colts 33-0. If they can rally in the last three games, they will be the 2-seed and potentially host playoff games in the first two rounds.
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