Only 10 schools still have a legit shot to make the College Football Playoff

Record: 9-1

This week's playoff ranking: 13

538 playoff probability: 9.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 0.1%

How they can make the playoff: UNC is here ... barely. Their 9-1 record includes a loss to Notre Dame and a lot of close wins against mediocre teams. The one thing they have going for them is that they can still finish as a 1=one-loss Power 5 conference champion, and that's worth something. To get there, they would need to beat Clemson and hope for a lot of other huge upsets.

Record: 9-1

This week's playoff ranking: 7

538 playoff probability: 17.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 7.2%

How they can make the playoff: The best thing going for USC has been that the Pac-12 is better this year. But losses by UCLA and Oregon this week hurt that argument. USC still needs to get past UCLA, Notre Dame, and the conference title game. If they do, they could be the first Pac-12 team in the playoff since 2016.

Record: 8-2

This week's playoff ranking: 8

538 playoff probability: 3.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 13.4%

How they can make the playoff: Despite two losses, 'Bama is not eliminated, mainly because it is 'Bama. But at this point, the Tide have been eliminated from the SEC title game, so they would have to convince the committee to take its first two-loss team — and one without even a conference title at that.

Record: 9-1

This week's playoff ranking: 9

538 playoff probability: 39.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 24.6%

How they can make the playoff: Clemson's blowout loss to unranked Notre Dame will be hard to overlook when the final votes are cast. Still, if the Tigers go 12-1 and win the ACC, they will be in the discussion, even if it feels like the ACC has taken a step back. The thing that hurts them the most is if TCU goes undefeated. Nothing remaining on Clemson's schedule (Miami, South Carolina, North Carolina) is going to be impressive enough to jump five spots in the ranking and leap-frog TCU.

Record: 8-2

This week's playoff ranking: 6

538 playoff probability: 15.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 5.0%

How they can make the playoff: There has still never been a two-loss team in the CFP, but LSU has a path to change that. With their win over Alabama, they will represent the SEC West in the conference championship game. A win over No. 1 Georgia there would be a pretty loud statement and hard to ignore.

Record: 9-1

This week's playoff ranking: 5

538 playoff probability: 46.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 60.2%

How they can make the playoff: Tennessee's blowout loss to Georgia did not eliminate the Vols by any stretch, and they are probably still in the playoff if they win out. The problem is they are locked out of the SEC title game and only have one game remaining against a winning team (6-4 South Carolina). But if they go 11-1 with their only loss to Georgia and a win over Alabama, that's a pretty strong case. But they might still need a little help.

Record: 10-0

This week's playoff ranking: 4

538 playoff probability: 49.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 33.8%

How they can make the playoff: It's hard to say an undefeated team in a Power 5 conference has to win out in order to make it, but TCU has to win out. Beating a ranked Texas team this week was a huge step in that direction. Their No. 4 spot in the playoff ranking suggests that if they beat Baylor, Iowa State, and an eventual conference title game foe, they are in the playoff. One slip-up, though, and they are done.

Record: 10-0

This week's playoff ranking: 3

538 playoff probability: 44.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 65.1%

How they can make the playoff: Michigan has quietly cruised through its first 10 games. All eyes are on the matchup against Ohio State with a spot in the Big Ten title game on the line. The winner likely locks up a playoff spot. If we assume TCU goes undefeated and Georgia wins the SEC, the loser of Ohio State-Michigan could end up as part of the discussion for the final playoff spot against a possible one-loss ACC champion Clemson, a one-loss Tennessee, and an impressive two-loss LSU.

Record: 10-0

This week's playoff ranking: 2

538 playoff probability: 67.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 89.1%

How they can make the playoff: Ohio State's path is exactly the same as Michigan's. Win that game and the Big Ten title game, they are in. Lose either game, and they are probably falling down to that group hoping for the final spot in the playoff.

Record: 10-0

This week's playoff ranking: 1

538 playoff probability: 87.0%

ESPN playoff probability: 96.6%

How they can make the playoff: Georgia feels like the only lock at this point. Even if they lose to LSU in the SEC title game, it is hard to imagine the Bulldogs falling behind teams like the Ohio State-Michigan loser (won't make their conference title game), Tennessee (whom Georgia beat easily), or one-loss champions from the ACC or Pac-12.