NFL MOCK DRAFT: What the experts are predicting for every first-round pick
Tyler Lauletta
- The 2023 NFL Draft is set to begin on Thursday, April 27.
- Until then, experts from around the NFL world will do their best to predict the first round.
We analyzed the mock drafts of 12 experts — Jordan Reid and Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN, Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks at NFL.com, Brendan Donahue at Sharp Football, Danny Kelly at The Ringer, Will Brinson, Chris Trapasso, and Ryan Wilson at CBS Sports, Walter Football, Brad Spielberger at PFF, and Charles McDonald at Yahoo Sports — to see if we could find any consensus over how the first round will shake out.
Nearly all of our experts agree that there will be a rush of quarterbacks to start the draft, but ideas on what late-round teams will do differ greatly.
Still, by taking a wide view, we can paint a picture of how the first round of picks at this year's draft might play out.
1. Carolina Panthers — C.J. Stroud, QB (Ohio State)
Experts: 9 of 12
Other possibilities: Bryce Young, QB (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Jordan Reid at ESPN: "The Panthers were aggressive in trading up from No. 9, and it's clear they have an eye on their top target. They desperately need a franchise quarterback. Stroud could be that player. History has shown new coach Frank Reich has preferred to work with bigger quarterbacks, and the 6-foot-3 Stroud meets a lot of the traits he has worked with in previous stops."
2. Houston Texans — Bryce Young, QB (Alabama)
Experts: 9 of 12
Other possibilities: Bryce Young, QB (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "For the Texans, who are in the early stages of a roster reset, they have to get the face of their franchise. Young can be that guy. No, he doesn't have ideal size, and at 5-foot-10, 204 pounds he's going to become the third under-6-foot signal-caller drafted in Round 1. But turn on the tape and watch him maneuver the pocket, find passing lanes and drop dimes all over the field. He's legit."
3. Arizona Cardinals — Will Anderson Jr., Edge (Alabama)
Experts: 9 of 12
Other possibilities: Trade down
Key expert quote: From Daniel Jeremiah at NFL.com: "I won't be surprised if the Cardinals trade this pick to Indianapolis, Seattle or Las Vegas. If they stay here, Anderson makes the most sense for a team that desperately needs a difference-maker on the defensive line. "
4. Indianapolis Colts — Anthony Richardson, QB (Florida)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Trade up, Will Levis, QB (Kentucky)
Key expert quote: From Ryan Wilson at CBS Sports: "Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger remain from last season's team while Matt Ryan is now a free agent. The Colts also signed Gardner Minshew, which means the team now has ... three backup quarterbacks on the roster."
5. Seattle Seahawks — Jalen Carter, DT (Georgia)
Experts: 6 of 12
Other possibilities: Tyree Wilson, Edge (Texas Tech); Will Anderson Jr., Edge (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Bucky Brooks at NFL.com: "Pete Carroll and John Schneider take the best player available to upgrade a defense that needs a makeover after last season's disappointing performance. Carter's off-field issues must be examined carefully" — he is facing street racing and reckless driving charges in connection with a fatal crash that happened in January — "but there's no question about his on-field talent."
6. Detroit Lions — Devon Witherspoon, CB (Illinois)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Christian Gonzalez, CB (Oregon); Jalen Carter, DT (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Bucky Brooks at NFL.com: "The spectacular cover corner is a man-to-man coverage specialist with the skills to flourish in defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn's system."
7. Las Vegas Raiders — Christian Gonzalez, CB (Oregon)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Tyree Wilson, Edge (Texas Tech); Will Levis, QB (Kentucky); Jalen Carter, DT (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "The Raiders made some big changes on the offensive side of the ball in free agency, signing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and receiver Jakobi Meyers while trading away tight end Darren Waller. Now they make an impact move for the defense, grabbing a highly athletic, playmaking corner in Gonzalez. The Oregon star will bolster a critical position for Las Vegas in the quarterback-studded AFC West."
8. Atlanta Falcons — Tyree Wilson, Edge (Texas Tech)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Lukas Van Ness, Edge (Iowa); Devon Witherspoon, CB (Illinois)
Key expert quote: From Walter Football: "The Falcons have ranked dead last in pressure rate in each of the past two seasons. Something must be done about this, so Atlanta could select a talented pass rusher with this pick."
9. Chicago Bears — Peter Skoronski, OT (Northwestern)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Paris Johnson Jr., OT (Ohio State); Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (Ohio State)
Key expert quote: From Will Brinson at CBS Sports: "This would be a pretty ideal situation for the Bears unless they're dead set (as some teams likely are) on moving Skoronski to guard instead of tackle. Ninth overall isn't too early if he's a really good guard, but he needs to be really good if that's their plan."
10. Philadelphia Eagles — Nolan Smith, Edge (Georgia)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Lukas Van Ness, Edge (Iowa); Peter Skoronski, OT (Northwestern)
Key expert quote: From Will Brinson at CBS Sports: "Philly doesn't immediately need help at pass rush but all of their primary guys are getting a little long in the tooth. Even Derek Barnett has been in the league for six years now and Howie Roseman isn't afraid to look a little down the road and has not been shy about looking towards the UGA program recently."
11. Tennessee Titans — Broderick Jones, OT (Georgia)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Will Levis, QB (Kentucky); Paris Johnson Jr., OT (Ohio State)
Key expert quote: From Chris Trapasso at CBS Sports: "Jones feels like a Titans type blocker. He's strong, athletic, and stars in the run game."
12. Houston Texans — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (Ohio State)
Experts: 7 of 12
Other possibilities: Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU); Lukas Van Ness, Edge (Iowa)
Key expert quote: From Brad Spielberger at PFF: "The Texans immediately get a top wide receiver for their new quarterback. Smith-Njigba fits perfectly in the slot alongside a blend of different wide receiver skill sets on the outside. After trading Brandin Cooks to the Dallas Cowboys, Houston needs a new top option, and Smith-Njigba is just that. "
13. New York Jets — Paris Johnson Jr., OT (Ohio State)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Broderick Jones, OT (Georgia); Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson)
Key expert quote: From Jordan Reid at ESPN: "With a deal for quarterback Aaron Rodgers still up in the air, the Jets' biggest need area remains offensive tackle. They dealt with a slew of injuries at both tackle spots last season and must continue to add players to try to fill that hole. Johnson has experience at guard and tackle, but his best position is left tackle, where he got better in each game in 2022. New York could slot him in right away as the blindside protector for Rodgers."
14. New England Patriots — Joey Porter Jr., CB (Penn State)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Devon Witherspoon, CB (Illinois); Bijan Robinson, RB (Texas); Nolan Smith, Edge (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "Porter is a 6-foot-2 press cornerback whose 4.46-second 40-yard dash at the combine was stellar for his size. He didn't allow any touchdowns in coverage last season. He's physical — he'll tackle in the run game. I see Porter as a player who could thrive for Bill Belichick's defense."
15. Green Bay Packers — Lukas Van Ness, Edge (Iowa)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU); Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson)
Key expert quote: From Brendan Donahue at Sharp Football: "The Packers tied for the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL last season so they will look to upgrade that unit with a prototypical Brian Gutekunst draft prospect. "
16. Washington Commanders — Brian Branch, S (Alabama)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Joey Porter Jr., CB (Penn State); Emmanuel Forbes, CB (Mississippi State)
Key expert quote: From Walter Football: "Washington can't cover anyone, thanks to William Jackson being a complete bust as a free agent signing. They desperately need someone new to stay with A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb. Brian Branch has nice size and cover ability. He can play anywhere in the secondary."
17. Pittsburgh Steelers — Deonte Banks, CB (Maryland)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Joey Porter Jr., CB (Penn State); Darnell Wright, OT (Tennessee)
Key expert quote: From Bucky Brooks at NFL.com: "The ultra-athletic defender from Maryland has the tools to develop into a high-end cover corner in time. With eight-time Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson in place to set an example, Banks could quickly mature into a solid starter for the Steelers by the end of his rookie season. "
18. Detroit Lions — Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Calijah Kancey, DT (Pittsburgh); Deonte Banks, CB (Maryland)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "They traded away T.J. Hockenson last fall and used a committee approach to the tight end position, with Brock Wright, James Mitchell and Shane Zylstra each catching at least 11 passes. All three are under contract for 2023, but shouldn't Detroit try to upgrade?
Mayer is the most complete tight end in this class. He's physical as a run-blocker, and he can run seam routes and get open for quarterback Jared Goff."
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Darnell Wright, OT (Tennessee)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Anton Harrison, OT (Oklahoma); Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame)
Key expert quote: From Brendan Donahue at Sharp Football: "Tampa Bay released last year's starting left tackle Donovan Smith and could move Tristan Wirfs over from right tackle to take his spot. That would leave an opening for Darnell Wright to move into and start day one."
20. Seattle Seahawks — Bijan Robinson, RB (Texas)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Jordan Addison, WR (USC); Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson)
Key expert quote: From Will Brinson at CBS Sports: "Kind of an outrageous pick and yet completely on brand for Pete Carroll and Seattle. Rashaad Penny is out the door and Seattle's offense sorely missed Kenneth Walker when he was injured last year. Why not double down, add Bijan to the backfield and start cooking with gas in a defense/run/Geno system?"
21. Miami Dolphins — N/A
The Miami Dolphins were forced to forfeit their first-round pick in the 2023 draft after the NFL determined the team had violated league policies "pertaining to the integrity of the game."
The investigation stemmed from former head coach Brian Flores' lawsuit against the Dolphins, and revealed that the team had had "impermissible communications" with quarterback Tom Brady while he was employed by other teams.
21. Los Angeles Chargers — Zay Flowers, WR (Boston College)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Bijan Robinson, RB (Texas); Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "The Chargers need more speed in their offense and Flowers gives them exactly that. The Boston College star is more than just a deep threat, though, offering twitchy separation skills in the short and intermediate areas, too. He perfectly complements Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and will give Justin Herbert another playmaker to throw to."
22. Baltimore Ravens — Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Jordan Addison, WR (USC); Zay Flowers, WR (Boston College); Lukas Van Ness, Edge (Iowa)
Key expert quote: From Ryan Wilson at CBS Sports: "The team has to get some downfield weapons and they've been quiet in free agency through the first week. Here they get a player who could end up WR1 on draft night. Johnston's an above-the-rim playmaker whose athleticism and contested-catch abilities were all over his tape at TCU."
23. Minnesota Vikings — Jordan Addison, WR (USC)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU); Nolan Smith, Edge (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Jordan Reid at ESPN: "After the release of Adam Thielen, there's a gaping hole at the WR2 spot opposite Justin Jefferson. Addison would give the offense another versatile player who can line up inside and outside. A detailed route runner, Addison has physical traits that are similar to those of Calvin Ridley, who was a first-round pick in 2018. "
24. Jacksonville Jaguars — Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson)
Experts: 1 of 12
Other possibilities: Brian Branch, S (Alabama); Emmanuel Forbes, CB (Mississippi State)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "Murphy rushes with an explosive first step, timing the snap well to shoot off the line and immediately threaten the edge. He has the footspeed to threaten the edge and can get low and flatten toward the quarterback."
25. New York Giants — Joe Tippmann, C (Wisconsin)
Experts: 1 of 12
Other possibilities: Jordan Addison, WR (USC); Devon Witherspoon, CB (Illinois)
Key expert quote: From Daniel Jeremiah at NFL.com: "The Giants did a nice job adding some much-needed speed to the skill positions in free agency. Tippmann would team up with two young, talented offensive tackles to protect Daniel Jones for the foreseeable future. "
26. Dallas Cowboys — Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah)
Experts: 1 of 12
Other possibilities: Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame); Brian Branch, S (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "After losing Dalton Schultz in free agency, the Cowboys turn to the draft to add a pass catching tight end. Kincaid's a dynamic route runner who separates vs. coverage and picks up chunks of yards after the catch. Alongside CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and the newly acquired Brandin Cooks, Kincaid will give Dak Prescott another seam-running threat up the middle of the field."
27. Buffalo Bills — Jalin Hyatt, WR (Tennessee)
Experts: 1 of 12
Other possibilities: Zay Flowers, WR (Boston College); Drew Sanders, LB (Arkansas)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "Hyatt is a premiere deep threat and big-play creator, making him a great fit with the big-armed, aggressive Josh Allen. Along with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Biletnikoff winner will make things tough for opposing defenses, who will have to pick their poison when it comes to coverage."
28. Cincinnati Bengals — Dawand Jones, OT (Ohio State)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Darnell Wright, OT (Tennessee); Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah); Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson)
Key expert quote: From Jordan Reid at ESPN: "The Bengals like blockers with bigger bodies who can wall off the inside of the pocket and create elongated edges for pass-rushers. This fit makes a lot of sense for them."
29. New Orleans Saints — Will McDonald IV, Edge (Iowa State)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame); Keion White, Edge (Georgia Tech)
Key expert quote: From Will Brinson at CBS Sports: "Everything on offense looks pretty stout for the Saints if Derek Carr works out and Alvin Kamara avoids legal issues. Losing Marcus Davenport (who cost two first-round picks, yikes) means a need for pass rush help."
30. Philadelphia Eagles — Bryan Bresee, DT (Clemson)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Brian Branch, S (Alabama); Bijan Robinson, RB (Texas); Mazi Smith, DT (Michigan)
Key expert quote: From Chris Trapasso at CBS Sports: "The Eagles reload along the defensive line — as per usual — with the big, long, and athletic Bresee."
31. Kansas City Chiefs — Adetomiwa Adebawore, Edge (Northwestern)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Dawand Jones, OT (Ohio State); Will McDonald IV, Edge (Iowa State)
Key expert quote: From Jordan Reid at ESPN: "Based on the defenders the Chiefs have targeted in previous drafts, they highly covet prospects who can generate consistent pressure. Watch Adebawore's performance against Ohio State from last season and you'll see he's capable of that. That game film is what scouts and evaluators bring up when mentioning why he'll be a first-round pick."
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