NFL MOCK DRAFT 2.0: What the experts are predicting for every first-round pick
Tyler Lauletta
- The 2023 NFL Draft is set to begin on Thursday, April 27.
- Until then, experts from around the NFL world will do their best to predict the first round.
- We analyzed 12 mock drafts to get a sense of what the experts expect teams to do with their picks.
Welcome to the Consensus Mock Draft
We analyzed the mock drafts of 12 experts — Charles McDonald at Yahoo Sports, Ryan Wilson, Chris Trapasso, and Josh Edwards at CBS Sports, Danny Kelly at The Ringer, Dane Brugler at The Athletic, Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay at ESPN, Peter Schrager, Charles Davis, Rhett Lewis, and Chad Reuter at NFL.com, and Brendan Donahue at Sharp Football Analysis — to see if we could find any consensus over how the first round will shake out.
Nearly all of our experts agree that there will be a run of quarterbacks to start, but ideas on what late-round teams will do differ greatly.
Still, by taking a wide view, we can paint a picture of how the first round at this year's draft might play out.
1. Carolina Panthers — Bryce Young, QB (Alabama)
Experts: 8 of 12
Other possibilities: C.J. Stroud, QB (Ohio State)
Key expert quote: From Chris Trapasso at CBS Sports: "Reportedly it's down to Young or Stroud for the Panthers, and I can see Frank Reich being enamored with Young's poise and flair for creativity."
2. Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud, QB (Ohio State)
Experts: 6 of 12
Other possibilities: Bryce Young, QB (Alabama); Anthony Richardson, QB (Florida)
Key expert quote: From Rhett Lewis at NFL.com: "The best pure passer in this draft uses ball placement as his superpower, elevating the skill players around him by allowing them to showcase their talents after the catch. Stroud's stellar postseason performances at Ohio State give Houston a glimpse of the player he can be when the lights shine brightest, as he'll be tasked with leading this team back to big-game situations."
3. Arizona Cardinals — Will Anderson Jr., Edge (Alabama)
Experts: 6 of 12
Other possibilities: Tyree Wilson, Edge (Texas Tech); trade down
Key expert quote: From Josh Edwards at CBS Sports: "The trade package offered could prove to be too tantalizing for Arizona to stick and make this pick. However, Jonathan Gannon comes from a Philadelphia environment that had a wealth of front-line defenders so beginning that foundation with Will Anderson Jr. is also intriguing."
4. Indianapolis Colts — Anthony Richardson, QB (Florida)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Will Levis, QB (Kentucky); trade up
Key expert quote: From Dane Brugler at The Athletic: "There's been so much talk about Richardson's ceiling, but with his size, mobility and general feel as a passer, I am encouraged by Richardson's floor as an NFL QB. His development mentally will decide that ceiling."
5. Seattle Seahawks — Tyree Wilson, Edge (Texas Tech)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Will Anderson Jr., Edge (Alabama); Jalen Carter, DT (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "The Seahawks address a big position of need by nabbing Wilson at this spot, adding a big, physical, three-down edge defender who can help set the tone on the defensive line. Wilson has rare length and plays with tremendous power, giving Seattle another penetrating playmaker who can get after opposing quarterbacks."
6. Detroit Lions — Jalen Carter, DT (Georgia)
Experts: 6 of 12
Other possibilities: Christian Gonzalez, CB (Oregon); Lukas Van Ness, Edge (Iowa)
Key expert quote: From Peter Schrager at NFL.com: "Elite player whose off-field/character questions could be a red flag for some teams. [Carter pleaded no contest to speeding and reckless driving charges after being involved in a fatal multi-car incident in January.] Carter met with Detroit on Monday. The thought of this defensive tackle joining last year's No. 2 overall pick, Aidan Hutchinson, is quite intriguing -- two blue-chip talents on one defensive line."
7. Las Vegas Raiders — Christian Gonzalez, CB (Oregon)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Devon Witherspoon, CB (Illinois); Paris Johnson Jr., OT (Ohio State)
Key expert quote: From Chad Reuter at NFL.com: "Adding Gonzalez's athleticism and ball skills instantly improves the Raiders' moribund secondary."
8. Atlanta Falcons — Nolan Smith, Edge (Georgia)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Tyree Wilson, Edge (Texas Tech); Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson)
Key expert quote: From Dane Brugler at The Athletic: "The Falcons have added several notable veterans (Calais Campbell, Bud Dupree) to their defensive line, and it wouldn't be surprising if they dropped a young rookie into that mix as well. Smith was born and raised in Georgia, played his college ball for the Bulldogs and would get to stay in his home state to start his NFL career."
9. Chicago Bears — Peter Skoronski, OT (Northwestern)
Experts: 6 of 12
Other possibilities: Jalen Carter, DT (Georgia); Paris Johnson Jr., OT (Ohio State)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "After extracting a massive haul to drop back out of the top overall pick, the Bears grab a talented offensive lineman here. A Chicago native, Skoronski lacks elite length but makes up for it basically everywhere else, giving the Bears a steady, hard-nosed lineman who excels as both a pass and run blocker. Whether he ends up at tackle or guard, Chicago gets what should be a longtime stalwart on the line."
10. Philadelphia Eagles — Bijan Robinson, RB (Texas)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Lukas Van Ness, Edge (Iowa); Nolan Smith, Edge (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Peter Schrager at NFL.com: "I know the Eagles haven't drafted a running back in the first round since the 1980s. I also know there aren't many elite players in this class. Robinson is one. Pure and simple."
11. Tennessee Titans — Will Levis, QB (Kentucky)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Anthony Richardson, QB (Florida); Broderick Jones, OT (Georgia); Peter Skoronski, OT (Northwestern)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "The Titans could get one of the steals of the draft. Levis is a little bit of a gunslinger, but he hasn't come close to his ceiling. He is my second-ranked passer in this class. With the right infrastructure around him, he is going to thrive."
12. Houston Texans — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (Ohio State)
Experts: 7 of 12
Other possibilities: Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson); Will Levis, QB (Kentucky); Bijan Robinson, RB (Texas)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "After grabbing their quarterback of the future with the second pick, the Texans turn around and get him a dynamic pass catcher at No. 12. Smith-Njigba has the skill set to develop into a quarterback's best friend, pairing elite quickness and body control with reliable hands and some run-after-the-catch ability."
13. New York Jets — Paris Johnson Jr., OT (Ohio State)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Peter Skoronski, OT (Northwestern); Broderick Jones, OT (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Rhett Lewis at NFL.com: "Love that Mekhi Becton looks to be in great shape on his road to recovery, but the Jets need some insurance based on how many different O-line combos they had to work with last year. Johnson also started at guard in Columbus before excelling on the blind side this past season, which could give New York some flexibility up front."
14. New England Patriots — Devon Witherspoon, CB (Illinois)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Christian Gonzalez, CB (Oregon); Broderick Jones, OT (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Chris Trapasso at CBS Sports: "The Patriots get the feistiest, in-your-face cornerback in the 2023 class in Witherspoon. He can play and excel on an island, a skill Bill Belichick holds in high regard."
15. Green Bay Packers — Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Broderick Jones, OT (Georgia); Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (Ohio State)
Key expert quote: From Charles Davis at NFL.com: "With Jordan Love on the verge of taking the reins, Green Bay needs another steady target in the passing game. Kincaid has the ability to make an immediate impact on Sundays."
16. Washington Commanders — Joey Porter Jr., CB (Penn State)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Darnell Wright, OT (Tennessee); Devon Witherspoon, CB (Illinois)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "The Commanders have plenty of more pressing needs, but Porter is just too exciting a talent to pass up at this spot. The Penn State standout has incredible length and brings instincts in coverage, giving Washington another ball hawk in the secondary."
17. Pittsburgh Steelers — Darnell Wright, OT (Tennessee)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Joey Porter Jr., CB (Penn State); Paris Johnson Jr., OT (Ohio State)
Key expert quote: From Rhett Lewis at NFL.com: "The Steelers' offensive line has not performed up to Pittsburgh's standard over the last couple of years. Wright presents an opportunity to upgrade one bookend spot for years to come."
18. Detroit Lions — Calijah Kancey, DT (Pittsburgh)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame); Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah)
Key expert quote: From Todd McShay at ESPN: "We're building one heck of a defensive line in Detroit after landing Tyree Wilson earlier. Sure, Kancey is undersized (6-foot-1, 281 pounds), but he is explosive and can make an impact as both a run-stuffer and an interior pass-rusher."
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Broderick Jones, OT (Georgia)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson); Darnell Wright, OT (Tennessee)
Key expert quote: From Chad Reuter at NFL.com: "Jones gets after defenders as a pass protector and run blocker and fills a major roster hole for the Buccaneers at left tackle."
20. Seattle Seahawks — Zay Flowers, WR (Boston College)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Hendon Hooker, QB (Tennessee); Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson)
Key expert quote: From Brendan Donahue at Sharp Football: "The Seahawks clearly have a very productive duo at wide receiver already in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who both had over 1,000 yards receiving last season. Flowers has often been comped to Lockett both in how they play on the field and how they both measured in at 182 pounds and recorded a 35.5-inch vertical at their respective combines."
21. Miami Dolphins — N/A
The Miami Dolphins were forced to forfeit their first-round pick in the 2023 Draft after the NFL determined the team had violated league policies "pertaining to the integrity of the game."
The investigation stemmed from former head coach Brian Flores' lawsuit against the Dolphins, and revealed that the team had had "impermissible communications" with quarterback Tom Brady while he was employed by other teams.
21. Los Angeles Chargers — Jordan Addison, WR (USC)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame); Zay Flowers, WR (Boston College); Bijan Robinson, RB (Texas)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "Addison would mesh well with the skill sets of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in L.A., likely playing mostly in the slot. He is the best route runner of the wideouts in this class."
22. Baltimore Ravens — Emmanuel Forbes, CB (Mississippi State)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU); Zay Flowers, WR (Boston College)
Key expert quote: From Todd McShay at ESPN: "The Ravens are looking for a playmaking corner to line up opposite Marlon Humphrey, so I think the guy who picked off 14 passes in college -- including six pick-sixes -- makes a lot of sense. Sure, Forbes is only 166 pounds, but his instincts, speed and arm length make him tough to beat."
23. Minnesota Vikings — Hendon Hooker, QB (Tennessee)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Jordan Addison, WR (USC); Nolan Smith, Edge (Georgia)
Key expert quote: From Josh Edwards at CBS Sports: "It is important for a franchise to get five years of control with Hendon Hooker considering he is coming off a torn ACL. Minnesota restarts the financial clock at quarterback with the selection of Hooker."
24. Jacksonville Jaguars — Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Bryan Bresee, DT (Clemson); Brian Branch, S (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Ryan Wilson at CBS Sports: "Murphy turned 21 in early January and while we'd like to see him play with more consistency, his best football is in front of him, for sure. He has all the physical tools you look for in an elite edge defenders and it's easy to see him in a few years being dominant."
25. New York Giants — Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Jordan Addison, WR (USC); Zay Flowers, WR (Boston College)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "The Giants re-upped the contracts of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton while inking Parris Campbell in free agency, but that doesn't mean they're done upgrading the receiver group. Johnston gives the team some size and YAC ability on the outside and should make Daniel Jones's life a little bit easier."
26. Dallas Cowboys — Sam LaPorta, TE (Iowa)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah); Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame)
Key expert quote: From Chris Trapasso at CBS Sports: "The Cowboys lost Dalton Schultz in free agency, and the tight end spot has always been important for Dak Prescott. LaPorta is a plus athlete who stars after the catch."
27. Buffalo Bills — Jalin Hyatt, WR (Tennessee)
Experts: 1 of 12
Other possibilities: Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah); Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson); Brian Branch, S (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "Hyatt is a premiere deep threat and big-play creator, making him a great fit with the big-armed, aggressive Josh Allen. Along with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Biletnikoff winner will make things tough for opposing defenses, who will have to pick their poison when it comes to coverage."
28. Cincinnati Bengals — Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Myles Murphy, Edge (Clemson); Brian Branch, S (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Josh Edwards at CBS Sports: "The tight end from northern Kentucky finds his way back home as Joe Burrow gets another weapon in the pass game. Michael Mayer is a well-rounded player who is capable of positively impacting the run game as well."
29. New Orleans Saints — Bryan Bresee, DT (Clemson)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Mazi Smith, DT (Michigan); Keion White, Edge (Georgia Tech)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "The Saints are a hard team to predict. Could they go tight end here? What about a young edge defender or safety? Ultimately, after they cleaned out their defensive tackle position this off-season, Bresee makes too much sense. He has some pass-rush upside too."
30. Philadelphia Eagles — Brian Branch, S (Alabama)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Bryan Bresee, DT (Clemson); Joey Porter Jr., CB (Penn State)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "With C.J. Gardner-Johnson departing in free agency, the Eagles look to further bolster their defensive backs group. Branch is undersized but makes up for it with incredible instincts and versatility."
31. Kansas City Chiefs — Anton Harrison, OT (Oklahoma)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge (Kansas State); Keion White, Edge (Georgia Tech)
Key expert quote: From Josh Edwards at CBS Sports: "Anton Harrison has played left tackle for Oklahoma so his selection allows Jawaan Taylor to return to the right side, which is where he has called home to this point in his professional career."
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