NFL MOCK DRAFT 2.0: What the experts are predicting for all 32 first-round picks
Tyler Lauletta
- The 2021 NFL Draft is set to begin on Thursday, April 29.
- Until then, experts from around the NFL world will do their best to predict the first round.
- We analyzed 12 mock drafts to get a sense of what experts expect from the first 32 picks.
The 2021 NFL Draft is fast approaching, with teams hoping to grab their next star player in the first round. While the Jacksonville Jaguars won't officially be on the clock until April 29, experts from across the NFL world are already busy predicting how the first round will play out.
We analyzed the mock drafts of 12 experts - Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay at ESPN, Michael Renner at Pro Football Focus, Chad Reuter, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Lance Zierlein at NFL.com, Danny Kelly at The Ringer, Ryan Wilson, Chris Trapasso, and Josh Edwards at CBS Sports, Walter Football, and The Athletic - to see if we could find any consensus on how the first round is expected to shake out.
While all 12 experts agree that the Jaguars will be taking Trevor Lawrence as the first overall pick to be their new franchise quarterback, after that, ideas on what teams will do begin to differ. A lot has changed since our first consensus mock draft of the season, but by taking a wide view, we can paint a picture of how the first 32 picks of this year's draft might play out.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB (Clemson)
Experts: 12 of 12
Other possibilities: N/A
Key expert quote: From Maurice Jones-Drew at NFL.com: "This is a match made in heaven. Jacksonville got the coach it wanted and now gets the No. 1 prospect in the country. What a way to kick off a new era of Jaguars football."
2. New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB (BYU)
Experts: 10 of 12
Other possibilities: Justin Fields, QB (Ohio State); trade down
Key expert quote: From Michael Renner at Pro Football Focus: "Wilson's fit in Mike LaFleur's offense is seemingly too perfect. No one in the country posted a higher grade off play action last year, and it wasn't even close. Wilson's 96.5 passing grade on such passes was a far cry from the next best in the draft class — Alabama's Mac Jones at 92.9."
3. Miami Dolphins - trade down to Panthers, who take Justin Fields
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Ja'Marr Chase, WR (LSU); Jaylen Waddle, WR (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Todd McShay at ESPN: "Carolina is closer to competing than its 5-11 record suggested, and a real game-breaker under center would go a long way toward getting the Panthers there. Teddy Bridgewater was more of a game manager last season, especially down the stretch, throwing only four more touchdowns than interceptions. Fields can make off-schedule throws or tuck it and run, but he has shown poise when he hangs in the pocket too."
4. Atlanta Falcons - Trey Lance, QB (ND State)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Justin Fields, QB (Ohio State); Rashawn Slater, OL (Northwestern)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "With its salary-cap situation, Atlanta mostly has to stay out of free agency, and it even had to restructure quarterback Matt Ryan's contract to get under the $182.5 million cap. As a result of that restructure, the organization can't move on from Ryan until 2022, at the earliest, but that's OK. Lance is going to need time to adapt to the speed of the NFL. He started only 17 games in college, all of which were against FCS competition, and it's a big jump to the pros. The Falcons need to start thinking about the future. "
5. Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT (Oregon)
Experts: 7 of 12
Other possibilities: Jaylen Waddle, WR (Alabama); Ja'Marr Chase, WR (LSU)
Key expert quote: From Josh Edwards at CBS Sports: "Penei Sewell is still young and developing. Cincinnati has to target its offensive line in the draft now because it struck out in free agency. By bringing in Sewell, Cincinnati can slide Jonah Williams inside or flip him to right tackle. Either way, the team is upgrading two positions in its protection of Joe Burrow."
6. Philadelphia Eagles - Kyle Pitts, TE (Florida)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Ja'Marr Chase, WR (LSU); DeVonta Smith, WR (Alabama); Micah Parsons, LB (Penn State)
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "The cap-strapped Eagles were quiet in free agency, but there's speculation that the team is looking to trade veteran tight end Zach Ertz. If Ertz plays elsewhere in 2021, Philly could draft a replacement in Pitts, an electrifying pass catcher and elite route runner who routinely comes down with jump balls. Alongside Dallas Goedert, Pitts would give the Eagles plenty of options in two tight end sets."
7. Detroit Lions - Ja'Marr Chase, WR (LSU)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Jaylen Waddle, WR (Alabama); DeVonta Smith, WR (Alabama); Micah Parsons, LB (Penn State)
Key expert quote: From Walter Football: "Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams, but I don't think the Lions are going after a quarterback with this pick because they're likely to give Jared Goff a try for one year. If so, Detroit will focus on its other big issues, including their receivers. Both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones have signed elsewhere, so two new receivers are needed."
8. Carolina Panthers - trade with Dolphins, who take Jaylen Waddle, WR (Alabama)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Justin Fields, QB (Ohio State); Trey Lance, QB (ND State); Kyle Pitts, TE (Florida)
Key expert quote: From Josh Edwards at CBS Sports: "Miami is able to move back and take one of the top wide receiver prospects, who happens to have a relationship with Tua Tagovailoa. Jaylen Waddle is more than just speed."
9. Denver Broncos - Micah Parsons, LB (Penn State)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Patrick Surtain, CB (Alabama); Caleb Farley, CB (Virginia Tech)
Key expert quote: From Josh Edwards at CBS Sports: "It was a bit of a surprise to see Denver keep Von Miller at that price but it keeps a potentially special second unit intact this season. Bradley Chubb, Micah Parsons and Miller are a group to be reckoned with but the defensive line in front of them needs to be patched as well."
10. Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain, CB (Alabama)
Experts: 5 of 12
Other possibilities: Caleb Farley, CB (Virginia Tech); Micah Parsons, LB (Penn State)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "The Cowboys brought back slot corner Jourdan Lewis, but there's still a hole at one of the outside spots, with Chidobe Awuzie walking in free agency. This selection could reunite former Alabama teammates Surtain and fellow CB Trevon Diggs. Surtain is the most fundamentally sound defensive back in this class."
11. New York Giants - DeVonta Smith, WR (Alabama)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Jaylen Waddle, WR (Alabama); Jaelen Phillips, DE (Miami)
Key expert quote: From Chris Trapasso at CBS Sports: "Pure elation for the Giants, being able to grab Smith at No. 11 overall for Danny Dimes."
12. San Francisco 49ers - Caleb Farley, CB (Virginia Tech)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Patrick Surtain, CB (Alabama); Kwity Paye, Edge (Michigan);
Key expert quote: From Danny Kelly at The Ringer: "Farley's draft stock could drop with the recent news that he underwent offseason back surgery, but the 49ers shouldn't hesitate to grab him if they feel confident about the prognosis that he should be ready in time for camp. San Francisco bolstered its secondary in free agency, re-signing corners Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett to short-term deals while also inking safeties Jaquiski Tartt and Tavon Wilson, but the Hokies star would provide a playmaking boost to a group that's likely to lose Richard Sherman in 2021."
13. Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OL (Northwestern)
Experts: 6 of 12
Other possibilities: Christian Darrisaw, OT (Virginia Tech)
Key expert quote: From Daniel Popper at The Athletic: "This is an utter dream scenario for the Chargers. They beefed up their offensive line with two big free-agent signings — center Corey Linsley and guard Matt Feiler — and the biggest remaining hole up front is at left tackle. Slater would slide in as the immediate starter there, replacing Sam Tevi. The Chargers would have a tough decision to make if Slater is off the board."
14. Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (USC)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Jaelen Phillips, DE (Miami); Gregory Rousseau, Edge (Miami); Rashawn Slater, OL (Northwestern)
Key expert quote: From Chad Graff at The Athletic: "The Vikings used their resources in free agency to address their needs on defense, signing defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson and cornerback Patrick Peterson. Now it's time to turn their attention to the offense. The Vikings have needs at both guard and tackle, and it's not entirely clear which spot Vera-Tucker would play right away in Minnesota. But he'd have a good chance to be a day one starter."
15. New England Patriots - Mac Jones, QB (Alabama)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Zaven Collins, Edge (Tulsa); Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (USC)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "Look at that -- New England doesn't even have to trade up to find its quarterback. Cam Newton is returning for another season, of course, and that was a smart deal to bring back a well-respected guy whom the rest of the locker room loves. But Newton is not likely to be the Patriots' guy past 2021, and Jones could soak up the pro game for a season before taking over as the starter."
16. Arizona Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB (South Carolina)
Experts: 9 of 12
Other possibilities: Caleb Farley, CB (Virginia Tech)
Key expert quote: From Lance Zierlein at NFL.com: "The Patrick Peterson era is over in Arizona. Though not as fast, Horn offers similar size with smothering man-cover potential as an early starter."
17. Las Vegas Raiders - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB (ND)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Azeez Ojulari, Edge (Georgia); Kwity Paye, Edge (Michigan); DeVonta Smith, WR (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Todd McShay at ESPN: "The Raiders' defense allowed 389.1 yards per game last season, the eighth most in the NFL. They managed all of 21 sacks and were gutted for 4.6 yards allowed per carry. They need pass-rushers, linemen, defensive backs and linebackers, and while Owusu-Koramoah will play only one position, he can impact multiple facets of the game. Look for him in the overhang role, dropping in coverage or rushing the QB. He has speed, instincts, suddenness and plenty of strength."
18. Miami Dolphins - Kwity Paye, Edge (Michigan)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Azeez Ojulari, Edge (Georgia); Najee Harris, RB (Alabama); Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (USC)
Key expert quote: From Walter Football: "The Dolphins needed to improve their pass rush before they got rid of players like Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson this offseason."
19. Washington Football Team - No consensus
Experts: N/A
Other possibilities: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (USC); Christian Darrisaw, OT (Virginia Tech); Zaven Collins, Edge (Tulsa)
Key expert quote: From Lance Zierlein at NFL.com: "Collins is a huge, active linebacker with excellent coverage instincts and an ability to become a tackle stacker at outside linebacker in Ron Rivera's defense."
20. Chicago Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OT (Virginia Tech)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (USC); Rashod Bateman, WR (Minnesota); Gregory Rousseau, Edge (Miami)
Key expert quote: From Chad Reuter at NFL.com: "Darrisaw could go higher if things fall differently, as he presents the size and athleticism to start immediately at left tackle. If teams ahead of the Bears decide to meet other needs, however, the Monsters of the Midway will reap the benefits. One or both of the team's current starting tackles, Charles Leno Jr. and Bobby Massie (who is coming off a knee injury), could be cap casualties."
21. Indianapolis Colts - Gregory Rousseau, Edge (Miami)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Christian Darrisaw, OT (Virginia Tech); Kadarius Toney, WR (Florida); Jaelen Phillips, DE (Miami); Christian Barmore, DT (Alabama);
Key expert quote: From Todd McShay at ESPN: "Christian Darrisaw might be an option if still available, filling in Anthony Castonzo's spot at left tackle, or the Colts might take a long look at Trevon Moehrig (TCU) at safety. But it's hard to ignore the need for pass-rush depth, especially as Indy deals with free-agency concerns on the edge. Rousseau hasn't played since 2019, but he had 15.5 sacks in that season and can overwhelm blockers with his power. He'd help keep an elite defense at the top of its game."
22. Tennessee Titans - Greg Newsome, CB (Northwestern)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Christian Barmore, DT (Alabama); Jaelen Phillips, DE (Miami); Jaycee Horn, CB (South Carolina)
Key expert quote: From Ryan Wilson at CBS Sports: "The Titans cut cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler and signed edge rusher Bud Dupree. And while they could certainly target another edge rusher here, Newsome is one of the best cornerbacks in this class who has the physicality to match up against NFL wide receivers."
23. New York Jets - Azeez Ojulari, Edge (Georgia)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Travis Etienne, RB (Clemson); Najee Harris, RB (Alabama); Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB (ND)
Key expert quote: From Chad Reuter at NFL.com: "GM Joe Douglas and new head coach Robert Saleh picked their quarterback early in this scenario — now it's time to find a pass rusher. Ojulari can get after quarterbacks with strong hands and quickness, but also plays tough against the run and moves well off the ball. He is only available for the Jets if teams in the top 20 overlook him due to his average size for the position."
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jalen Mayfield, OL (Michigan)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Teven Jenkins, OT (Oklahoma State); Najee Harris, RB (Alabama); Travis Etienne, RB (Clemson)
Key expert quote: From Josh Edwards at CBS Sports: "Maurkice Pouncey retired, Alejandro Villanueva is a free agent and Matt Feiler signed with the Chargers. An already unimpressive offensive line could need three starters. Mayfield can play on the edge or inside."
25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT (Alabama)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Trevon Moehrig, S (TCU); Alex Leatherwood, OT (Alabama); Carlos Basham Jr., Edge (Wake Forest)
Key expert quote: From Maurice Jones-Drew at NFL.com: "The Jags have a lot to do to get back on track. After finding their quarterback (Hello, Mr. Lawrence), one of the next most important priorities is finding someone who can stop the run. Barmore steps in as an immediate force in the middle of the defense."
26. Cleveland Browns - Zaven Collins, Edge (Tulsa)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Jaelen Phillips, DE (Miami); Jayson Oweh, Edge (Penn State)
Key expert quote: From Ryan Wilson at CBS Sports: "For the 2020 season Collins had four sacks, four interceptions (including two pick-sixes) and two forced fumbles. At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, he looks more like a defensive end but moves with the fluidity of the modern day inside linebackers that have become so prevalent around the league."
27. Baltimore Ravens - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR (LSU)
Experts: 4 of 12
Other possibilities: Kadarius Toney, WR (Florida); Azeez Ojulari, Edge (Georgia); Teven Jenkins, OT (Oklahoma State)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "This is my third mock draft, and I've pegged Marshall to the Ravens in all three, which pretty much guarantees that they will go in another direction. It just makes too much sense, though. Lamar Jackson needs a wide receiver who can line up on the outside and run every route. That's how Jackson can take the leap forward in Year 4. Marshall had 10 scores and averaged 15.2 yards per catch last season, and he had 13 touchdowns while catching passes from Joe Burrow in 2019."
28. New Orleans Saints - Trevon Moehrig, S (TCU)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Tyson Campbell, DB (Georgia); Asante Samuel Jr., CB (Florida State); Kadarius Toney, WR (Florida)
Key expert quote: From Walter Football: "The Saints need to continue to improve their secondary, as their pass defense was a weakness in 2019. Malcolm Jenkins looks shot. Trevon Moehrig is a hybrid safety-linebacker who had an impressive 2019 season."
29. Green Bay Packers - No consensus
Experts: N/A
Other possibilities: Zaven Collins, Edge (Tulsa); Kadarius Toney, WR (Florida); Greg Newsome, CB (Northwestern)
Key expert quote: From Maurice Jones-Drew at NFL.com: "The Packers finally add a first-round pass catcher for MVP Aaron Rodgers. The quick, shifty wideout will add balance to an already explosive offense."
30. Buffalo Bills - Tyson Campbell, DB (Georgia)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Greg Newsome, CB (Northwestern); Christian Barmore, DT (Alabama); Landon Dickerson, C (Alabama)
Key expert quote: From Ryan Wilson at CBS Sports: "Tre White is one of the best CBs in the NFL but there's not much depth behind him. Taron Johnson is coming off a good season, but has just one year left on his current deal and Campbell would add a long, physical playmaker to a secondary that improved over the course of the 2020 season"
31. Kansas City Chiefs - Liam Eichenberg, OT (Notre Dame)
Experts: 2 of 12
Other possibilities: Teven Jenkins, OT (Oklahoma State); Landon Dickerson, C (Alabama); Jalen Mayfield, OL (Michigan)
Key expert quote: From Mel Kiper Jr. at ESPN: "The Chiefs are shaking up their offensive line, signing guards Joe Thuney and Kyle Long in free agency and letting tackles Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher and interior linemen Austin Reiter and Kelechi Osemele walk (although Kansas City could still bring back one or some of them on short-term deals). And even after retaining Mike Remmers, it makes sense to draft a young tackle who could start down the road. There's some buzz around Eichenberg, who was the Fighting Irish's left tackle for the past two seasons. He has great feet and packs a punch in the run game."
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Najee Harris, RB (Alabama)
Experts: 3 of 12
Other possibilities: Christian Barmore, DT (Alabama); Levi Onwuzurike, DT (Washington); Zaven Collins, Edge (Tulsa)
Key expert quote: From Michael Renner at Pro Football Focus: "A "luxury" pick for a team that quite frankly doesn't have many open spots on the roster after they ran it back in free agency. Harris' hands and tackle-breaking ability in space are night and day from any other back on the Bucs' roster."
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