Here are the most likely March Madness upsets, according to Las Vegas
Tyler Lauletta
- March Madness is back.
- If you're filling out a bracket, it's smart to include a few first-round upsets.
- By checking in with Las Vegas, you can get a better idea of which underdogs could shock the world.
March Madness is back, and it's time to fill out your bracket.
Through the first two rounds of the tournament, it's important to include a few upsets in your bracket. They don't have to be stunners, but a few double-digit seeded teams taking a win in the first round is to be expected. The key is choosing the right ones.
By taking a look at the lines in Las Vegas, we can get a better idea of which upsets could occur in the first round. Sometimes, a lower-seeded team is actually favored over their higher-seeded opponents. Other times, the spread just isn't as big as you might think, hinting that Vegas sees a potential upset in the works.
Below we examined the 15 first-round upsets most likely to happen based on the spreads. All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
No. 10 Rutgers over No. 7 Clemson
The spread: Rutgers -1.5
One thing to know: Rutgers is the only lower-seeded team in the tournament this year to be favored over their higher-seeded opponent. Ron Harper Jr. is a player to watch, leading the team with 15.4 points per game. The Scarlet Knights could even be a threat to make the Sweet 16 if they can get past Houston in the second round.
No. 10 Virginia Tech over No. 7 Florida
The spread: Florida -1
One thing to know: While Florida is the favorite here, a 1-point spread is basically a toss-up. Virginia Tech is a tough team to read, as they've only played three games since the first week of February. But the Hokies have wins over top-10 teams this year, including Villanova and Virginia. If they can find that form again, they could be set to make a run.
No. 9 St. Bonaventure over No. 8 LSU
The spread: LSU -1.5
One thing to know: St. Bonaventure is playing hot right now, coming off of a win over VCU in the Atlantic 10 title game. The Bonnies' first-round match against LSU should be one of the best of the opening weekend.
No. 9 Missouri over No. 8 Oklahoma
The spread: Oklahoma -2
One thing to know: Games between No. 8 and No. 9 seeds may not look like huge upsets, but because the winner goes on to play (and likely lose to) the No. 1 seed, these picks can often be a good spot to pick up the point or two that makes the difference in your league. Mizzou has some impressive wins on the year, having beaten Illinois, Tennessee, and Alabama, but they have lost six of their last nine heading into the tournament.
No. 9 Wisconsin over No. 8 North Carolina
The spread: North Carolina -2
One thing to know: Wisconsin had a tough stretch to end the season, losing six of their last eight games heading into March Madness. But the Big Ten is tough, and all six of those losses came against ranked teams, including three alone to Iowa. Shake off those losses, and they could be a brand new team.
No. 10 Maryland over No. 7 UConn
The spread: UConn -2.5
One thing to know: Maryland went up against Michigan in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament in a game that ended with some heated exchanges. If the Terps can rally off a few wins, they could get their rematch against the Wolverines in the Elite Eight.
No. 9 Georgia Tech over No. 8 Loyola Chicago
The spread: Loyola Chicago -2.5
One thing to know: Loyola Chicago was the Cinderella story of the 2018 bracket but face a tough challenge in the first round this year. Georgia Tech is playing their best basketball of the season, rattling off nine straight wins en route to winning the ACC Tournament.
No. 11 Syracuse over No. 6 San Diego State
The spread: San Diego State -3
One thing to know: Jim Boeheim's Syracuse Orange can win on any given day. The Orange have proven they are capable of making a run in March, regardless of their seeding. In 2016, Syracuse reached the Final Four as a No. 10 seed before falling to North Carolina in the national semifinal. Could they do it again this year as an 11-seed?
No. 12 Georgetown over No. 5 Colorado
The spread: Colorado -5
One thing to know: Georgetown is one of the hottest teams in the country, shaking off a five-game, mid-season losing streak to rally their way through the Big East tournament, including a 73-48 thrashing of Creighton in the championship game.
No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Texas Tech
The spread: Texas Tech -5
One thing to know: As we dig deeper for potential upsets, some of the spreads get a little wider. As 5-point underdogs to Texas Tech, Utah State will need a few breaks to go their way, but with two wins over San Diego State earlier in the year, the Aggies have already proven they can hang tough with challenging opponents.
No. 12 Winthrop over No. 5 Villanova
The spread: Villanova -6
One thing to know: Winthrop is an impressive 23-1 on the year, and their only loss came by two points. While they play out of the relatively weak Big South conference, the confidence of a team that knows how to win is very real. In the first round, they'll be facing a Villanova team that is dealing with several injuries. Nova is still the better team, but Winthrop is a potential 12-5 upset to look at if you like backing a winner.
No. 10 VCU over No. 7 Oregon
The spread: Oregon -6
One thing to know: VCU is known to fans for their run to the Final Four as an 11-seed in 2011. Since then, a lot has changed as the Rams have exited in the first round of their past two tournament appearances.
No. 12 UCSB over No. 5 Creighton
The spread: Creighton -6.5
One thing to know: UC Santa Barbara will be another popular 12-5 upset this year. The Gauchos have been stomping on some of their opponents this year, with 15 of their 22 wins coming by double-digits. They are matched up in the first round against a Creighton team that just lost in demoralizing fashion to Georgetown in the Big East tournament final.
No. 13 North Texas over No. 4 Purdue
The spread: Purdue -7.5
One thing to know: Now we are getting to the more impractical upsets, but if you are looking for a top-4 seed to go down in the first round, bookmakers have North Texas as the most likely team to pull the upset as just 7.5-point dogs to Purdue.
No. 13 Ohio over No. 4 Virginia
The spread: Virginia -8
One thing to know: Again, if you're looking for a bigger upset, Ohio as an 8-point dog to Virginia is as close as these spreads get for top-ranked teams in the first round. These big upsets are a tough call to make, but if you get it right, you win bragging rights for quite some time.
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