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A Travis Kelce opening TD and two exact scores — these are the results oddsmakers are hoping to avoid when the Eagles and Chiefs meet in the Super Bowl

Feb 11, 2023, 23:30 IST
Insider
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce does a social media post after their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann
  • Super Bowl LVII kicks off on Sunday between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.
  • Sportsbook BetMGM has 755 individual markets on the game, from simple, straight bets to interesting and temptingly long-shot props.
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PHOENIX — Millions upon millions of dollars will be gambled on Super Bowl LVII.

Drake is betting on the Chiefs. Experts are picking the Eagles, but the split is close, and football fans across the country are picking out their favorite prop bets to get a little action on the game.

For the companies that have brought sportsbetting nationwide in recent years, more bets is great for business. As the saying goes, the house always wins.

But even still, there are a few outcomes that would turn things into a bad night for the books.

BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt spoke with Insider on Friday, breaking down where the action stood heading into Super Bowl Sunday.

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"We want under 50 points and Travis Kelce not to score the first touchdown," Greenblatt told Insider.

With a few of the props, it's harder to cover exposure to risk.

Take Kelce scoring the first touchdown for example. In the days before kickoff, Kelce is the betting favorite to score first, featuring the shortest odds on the board by a good margin.

In another case, those odds might indicate that there wasn't a lot of value to be found in the number, and steer a bettor elsewhere, but the money keeps coming in on Kelce anyway.

It's not just at BetMGM. At books across the country, Kelce to score the first touchdown is getting hammered.

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On the game itself, BetMGM would prefer for the Chiefs to win, as nearly 70% of the money on the game is currently on the Eagles, including two seven-figure bets that have come in.

But there are two outcomes that are of the most risk for BetMGM on Sunday, and they are both stunningly specific.

First, Chiefs win by an exact score of 33-30.

According to Greenblatt, this outcome would be a "million dollar loser," despite the fact that it would be a Chiefs win, which is preferable for the book.

The risk comes from the exact score market, where for extremely long odds, bettors can pick out the exact score of the game.

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"33-30, we understand that someone published it on social," Greenblatt said, explaining the sudden prevalence of money on this specific outcome.

The other exact score that would be a let down for BetMGM is Eagles 37, Chiefs 34.

On Friday night, Chiefs 33-30 was still available at 200/1 odds, but Eagles 37, Chiefs 34 has dropped all the way down to 80/1.

As Greenblatt explained it, over time, books like BetMGM trust their numbers to come out on the right side of things.

"Get your line right. Make sure you've got your vig built into your price over time. Take enough bets," and it will, theoretically, all work out.

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For the books taking bets, it's a numbers game — as long as risk is diversified, one bad outcome can't hurt too badly.

Still, on Super Bowl Sunday, there are a few outcomes that would sting a bit more.

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