5 things to know about the most unexpected NBA Finals matchup in years
- The NBA Finals between the Bucks and Suns begin on Tuesday.
- Giannis Antoetokounmpo's knee injury looms over the series, as he's questionable for Game 1.
- Other storylines include the Bucks' defense, Chris Paul's composure, and Khris Middleton's scoring.
The NBA Finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns kick off on Tuesday, July 6, at 9 p.m. ET. All games will be broadcast on ABC.
The series features four All-Stars and two teams that haven't made it to the Finals in decades.
Here are some key storylines to watch:
Few saw this NBA Finals coming
Somewhere out there, somebody made a lot of money betting on a Milwaukee Bucks-Phoenix Suns NBA Finals.
Entering the season, there wasn't a ton of confidence that the Bucks could make it to the next level after back-to-back disappointing postseasons.
When these playoffs began, the Miami Heat were popular upset picks over the Bucks in the first round, and many thought the Brooklyn Nets would beat the Bucks when they went up 2-0 in the second round. Instead, Milwaukee beat Brooklyn in seven games.
Then there's the Suns - a true long-shot. Phoenix had not made the playoffs in over a decade. They were a mediocre squad for most of last season, only inspiring some confidence because they went 8-0 in last year's bubble before missing the playoffs.
This year, thanks to the acquisition of Chris Paul, plus internal growth from players like Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges, the Suns have stormed through the playoffs, knocking off both Los Angeles teams (albeit injured versions) that were popular picks to make the Finals.
The Suns are in their first Finals since 1993. They have never won the championship. Meanwhile, the Bucks are in their first Finals since 1974. They last won a championship in 1971.
How much will Giannis Antetokounmpo play?
Antetokounmpo has been upgraded from "doubtful" to "questionable" for Game 1. If he doesn't suit up on Tuesday, it at least seems that he'll be on the court at some point this series.
The series may hinge on whether Antetokounmpo plays. He is the best player on either side, a wrecking ball in the paint who will pose problems for Suns center Deandre Ayton, and a long defensive presence who could provide some weakside help for his teammates against the Suns' talented one-on-one creators.
Injuries have left a stamp on these playoffs, and an injury once again hangs over the championship.
Can Chris Paul finally reach the mountaintop?
Fair or unfair, Paul had a reputation as a postseason choker entering this season.
Injuries to himself and his teammates have impacted his playoff legacy. But he also had moments where he didn't play his best basketball when his team needed him.
That hasn't been the case this postseason. Paul scored 37 points on 14-of-19 shooting in the Suns' Game 4 close-out win over the Nuggets in the second round, then dropped 41 on 16-of-24 shooting in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals.
Can Paul, one of the best players of the last decade, play under control as he nears the prize that has eluded him?
Paul has been incredibly efficient in these playoffs, posting a 47-40-90 shooting line while averaging fewer than two turnovers per game. He has found a fine balance between looking for his shot and setting up teammates. He'll need to maintain that balance throughout the Finals, and all eyes will be on whether he rises to the occasion.
A championship would elevate Paul permanently into the discussion of top five point guards in NBA history.
Which Khris Middleton will the Bucks get?
If Antetokounmpo is sidelined, the Bucks offense will run through Middleton even more.
He delivered in the two games without Antetokounmpo in the conference finals, scoring a combined 56 points on 20-of-42 shooting (47.6% FG).
Yet you could argue that as Middleton goes, so go the Bucks. Here are Middleton's splits in wins and losses these playoffs:
- WINS: 26 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 49-42-90 shooting
- LOSSES: 17 points, 7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 31-15-82 shooting
Middleton is the Bucks' unlikely closer - they rely on him to handle the ball and create shots when games get tight. The two-time All-Star is one of the game's most underrated players, but he could elevate his profile by leading a short-handed Bucks team on the game's biggest stage.
Can the Bucks stop the Suns' midrange game?
There's no shortage in potential schematic storylines, but the one that might get the most play is the Bucks' drop defense vs. the Suns' midrange scorers.
The Bucks defense is designed to take away three-pointers and layups. Their big men drop back in pick-and-rolls, trying to keep the ball-handler and roller in front of them to force tough, contested, midrange shots.
It's an analytically driven scheme that may have met its match this round: Paul and Devin Booker are two of the NBA's best midrange shooters.
The Bucks practiced a more switch-heavy defense all season and have busted it out in these playoffs. But doing so risks putting bigger, slower defenders on Phoenix's crafty guards, or a smaller defender on Ayton, who can punish a mismatch inside.
Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been criticized for being slow to adjust in playoff series, but he may have no choice if the Bucks are getting shredded from the midrange.
Expert predictions
We tallied the predictions from writers at ESPN, Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, CBS, and Bleacher Report.
36 writers predicted the Suns would win, while 8 predicted the Bucks would win.
Our pick:
Suns in 7.