4 teams are competing for 2 spots in the NBA's first-ever play-in tournament, and the race is coming down to the wire
Scott Davis
- The NBA will have a "play-in tournament" for the eighth seed of the playoffs in the Western Conferece this year.
- With two games left, four teams — the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns, and San Antonio Spurs — are all competing for the two play-in spots.
- We broke down each team's remaining schedule and chances of getting in.
The race for the NBA's first-ever play-in tournament is getting tight in the Western Conference.
When the NBA decided on a format for resuming its season in a "bubble" in Disney World, the plans included a play-in tournament for the eighth and final playoff seed if the eighth and ninth-place teams were within four games or fewer of each other in the standings.
In the East, the race is over, with the Washington Wizards eliminated from playoff contention. But in the West, four teams are neck-and-neck in the race for those two seeds.
We broke down the four teams racing for the play-in tournament and their playoff odds, via 538, below.
First, here is a look at the Western Conference standings as of Tuesday morning, August 11.
Just one game separates the eighth-place Memphis Grizzlies and the 11th-place San Antonio Spurs.
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 33-39, 9th place
538 playoff odds: 76%
Games remaining: 2 (Dallas Mavericks, Brooklyn Nets)
Where they stand right now: The Blazers are whole again and playing like a playoff team — much like they would have been if not for major injuries throughout the season. Through six bubble games, they have the NBA's best offense, and though their defense has lagged behind (20th), they're 4-2 since resuming play.
If they miss the playoffs, Damian Lillard might have a tough time swallowing his two missed free throws to put away the Clippers. However, he responded the next game with 51 points to beat the Philadelphia 76ers and keep the Blazers alive. Lillard and the rest of the Blazers have plenty of offensive punch, but stopping the Mavericks' potent offense could be the defining challenge for Portland to make the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 33-38, 8th place
538 playoff odds: 14%
Games remaining: 2 (Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks)
Where they stand right now: The surprise team of the NBA season stumbled out of the gate in the bubble and could miss the playoffs because of it. Through six games, the Grizzlies have the fifth-worst offense but have been competitive thanks to their defense. Unfortunately, they have stumbled in close games, thanks to 18% shooting (2-of-11) from three and a 135.9 defensive rating in the clutch.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for the remainder of the bubble, and the Grizzlies face two of the best teams in the league the rest of the way (though the Celtics and Bucks may rest their top stars, as their seeds are secure). The only thing going for the Grizzlies is a lead in the standings thanks to their regular-season success.
Phoenix Suns
Record: 32-39, 10th place
538 playoff odds: 8%
Games remaining: 2 (Philadelphia 76ers, Dallas Mavericks)
Where they stand right now: Phoenix has been the best team in the bubble, full stop. They're 6-0, with a whopping 11.1 net rating. Devin Booker might be the most lethal scorer in the NBA right now, Ricky Rubio is playing some of his most efficient basketball, DeAndre Ayton is showing why he was the 2018 No. 1 pick, and the Suns are getting contributions from all levels of their roster. Where was this all season?
The Suns still have a tough schedule and will need to count on some losses above them. It's a tough ask, but Phoenix may need to go 8-0 and hope the Grizzlies lose both games. But if they do: look out, Lakers.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 31-38, 11th place
538 playoff odds: 2%
Games remaining: 2 (Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz)
Where they stand right now: San Antonio has gone small in the bubble to great effect. They still don't shoot many threes (26 per game, last in the bubble), but they hit them (41.3%, third-best in the bubble). They're playing at the third-quickest pace, rarely sending opponents to the line, and defending shots well.
But San Antonio has been a little lucky. San Antonio grants very few "wide open" looks (no defender within six feet of a shooter), but opponents have only hit 38% on those wide-open looks, per NBA.com/Stats. The Spurs are also granting a bubble-high 24 shots per game from less than 10 feet, where their opponents are shooting 57%, the sixth-lowest mark in the league.
The Spurs have gotten a bit lucky, and they'll need some more luck by winning out and getting some help from the Grizzlies, Blazers, and Suns.
Now, check out the highest-paid players in the bubble
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