SMART WATCH FORECAST: The Apple Watch May Lead Wrist-Worn Computers To Mass Market Status

BII

Consumers will come to embrace smart watches because they will be relatively unobtrusive and allow them to do things that smartphones don't.

The mass-market debut of smart watches is now a reality with Apple's announcement today of "Apple Watch," which features a user interface organized around the "digital crown," a new take on the watch's winding mechanism.

In BI Intelligence's proprietary forecast for the smart watch market, we provided a half-dozen charts and datasets illustrating the potential for smart watches within the wearable computing space, and mobile.

Here are the dynamics and numbers we see driving the emerging smart watch market:

• We forecast 91.6 million smartwatch units sold globally in 2018. With an average selling price of about $100, that translates to a $9.2 billion market by 2018. Subscribers can download a spreadsheet and charts that show year-by-year estimates and the numerical assumptions behind our market forecast.
• A mass-market smart watch would be the first new mobile device since the smartphone to upgrade or enhance a ubiquitous consumer product - the wristwatch. A watch with an Internet connection isn't as alien a concept as Google Glass.
• And watches are a huge addressable market. It varies by age and gender, but consumer surveys reveal a slight majority of the U.S. and global populations still wear a watch, around 55%.
• Even if only a minority of watch-wearers upgrade to Internet-connected and app-centric smart watches, that's still a huge market and a boon for growth-hungry tech players and app makers.
• In the future, about one in 20 smartphones will be paired in some way with smart watches.
• Smart watches will come to absorb the market for popular smart fitness bands like the FitBit. Activity trackers will also tell the time, and smart watches will track steps and sleep. The market will blur into one.
• Through just the first half of 2013, the Kickstarter-launched Pebble watch shipped 93,000 smart watches and took over 275,000 pre-orders.
• The market in mainstream, wearable computing has so far been anchored by smart fitness bracelets, and pioneered by Pebble, but mass-market smart watches will absorb some of the fitness wearables market, and become the wearables category-leader for the ordinary consumer.
• Smart watches will have screens, even if they're tiny, and potentially run software that allow them to serve as a robust extension to smartphone operating systems and apps.

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In full, the report:

• Analyzes the data showing that smart watches will turn out to account for one-third of the wearable computing market
• Explains why the key to the smart watch market is the "attach rate," the percentage of smartphone owners who will acquire a smart watch to complement their phone
• Breaks down the attach rate and smart watch sales between smartphone owners, new smartphone purchasers, and wristwatch-wearers
• Explains why app-centric smart watches represent the natural evolution of the digital watch
• Looks at how the smart watch market has been sized by different research firms and compares their estimates with ours
• Correctly predicts that Apple's foray into a smart watch may not be a stand-alone watch but a modular system of compatible and differently styled wrist-worn components for different lifestyles

To access BI Intelligence's full reports on The Smart Watch Market and the Wearable Computing market, sign up for a free trial subscription here.

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