The 26 best prop bets you can make on Super Bowl LIV

The pick: Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo will complete his first pass ($100 to win $50)

The logic: San Francisco is going to come out of the gate conservative and with a plan. After Jimmy Garoppolo threw just eight times in the NFC Championship, I'm expecting his first pass play drawn up to be a short, easy completion to get his legs back under him.

The pick: Yes, there will be a score in the first 6:30 minutes of the game ($55 to win $50)

The logic: This bet is always a nail-biter, often coming down to whether or not the play before a field goal attempt was an incompletion or a run play that kept the clock moving. It feels close to a coin flip in this game, but both teams have plenty of potential to score on their first drive, and it's more fun to root for the points than a lack of them.

The pick: Yes, there will be a missed extra point ($25 to win $75)

The logic: The odds on this bet aren't great — 49ers kicker Robbie Gould missed just one extra point kick all year, and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has missed just four through his 18 games played this year.

Still, it feels like we're due for a shank somewhere here. I'm expecting a lot of scoring on Sunday, which will give ample opportunity, and whether it's a high-pressure hold or a simple case of the jitters, it feels like a miss is coming our way.

The pick: Over 4.5 sacks ($65 to win $50)

The logic: There's some great talent on both defensive lines in this game. While neither side has been prone to give up a ton of sacks all season, this number feels low when I expect Nick Bosa to pick up at least two on his own.

The pick: 49ers score first ($55 to win $50)

The logic: All postseason we've watched the Chiefs come out a bit discombobulated only to assert their will in the second quarter and erase and deficit that stood before them. Feels like the same thing will play out on Sunday. If you're looking to live bet the game, waiting to see if the 49ers score first and then hitting the Chiefs' moneyline is one strategy to consider.

The pick: Under 47.5 yards for longest field goal ($55 to win $50)

The logic: Both head coaches in this game are going to want to leave it all on the field. As two of the best play designers in the league, I can't see them settling for a field goal on fourth-and-five from their opponents' 30-yard line. I see both teams playing aggressive and knowing they'll need touchdowns to win.

The pick: No, Harrison Butker will not miss a field goal ($200 to win $50)

The logic: Harrison Butker hasn't missed a field goal attempt since Week 10. He's good for it.

The pick: Over 13.5 first-half points for the Kansas City Chiefs ($110 to win $100)

The logic: Through their first two games this postseason, the Chiefs have scored 42 total points in the second quarter alone. The 49ers defense will be the best they've faced so far, but two touchdowns in the first half shouldn't be an issue.

The pick: George Kittle and Travis Kelce ($25 each to win $200)

The logic: With the two best tight ends in football facing off against each other, it feels like one of them will get in the end zone. As the leading targets in their respective offenses, the trusted hands of Kittle and Kelce should come into play when either team gets in the red zone.

The pick: Under 239.5 passing yards for Jimmy Garoppolo ($55 to win $50)

The logic: Jimmy Garoppolo only threw eight passes in the NFC Championship game. While I expect there to be an uptick from that number in the Super Bowl, the biggest mismatch in this game is the San Francisco rushing attack vs. the Chiefs rushing defense. Kyle Shanahan should be leaning on his running backs again and looking to control the clock and possession — you don't beat the Chiefs by extending the game.

The pick: 76ers/Celtics total (+16.5) over Jimmy Garoppolo receiving yards ($55 to win $50)

The logic: Again, I don't think Jimmy Garoppolo is throwing a ton in this game, and I will already be watching the 76ers play on Saturday night, so might as well get some action started early.

The pick: Over 80.5 rushing yards for Raheem Mostert ($55 to win $50)

The logic: While the 49ers have a trio of talented backs that they'll likely cycle through on Sunday, Raheem Mostert has been the breakout star for the 49ers late in the year, capped off by his 220 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC Championship. San Francisco will be ready to lean on him again.

The pick: Young (-0.5) over Sanders ($55 to win $50)

The logic: Emmanuel Sanders hasn't had more than three receptions since Week 14 of the regular season. While a big play could always spell trouble for this bet, Trae Young is on an absolute tear right now and could combine for close to 45 points, rebounds, and assists, whereas Sanders individual over/under currently sits at around 40 flat.

The pick: Hill (-1.5) receiving yards over Kittle ($55 to win $50)

The logic: Kittle is a top target for the 49ers offense, but I feel like Reid has a play drawn up for Hill that's set to break off a 75-yard touchdown at some point in this game. With these head-to-head bets, it only takes one play to win.

The pick: 49ers (-49.5) rushing yards over Chiefs ($55 to win $50)

The logic: This might be a sucker bet. The Chiefs very well could decide to establish the run over having Mahomes throw nearly 50 passes on Sunday. But again, the biggest mismatch in this game is the 49ers rushing offense vs. the Cheifs rushing defense, and it feels like San Francisco will be ready to take full advantage of it.

The pick: Yes there is a defensive/special teams touchdown ($50 to win $110)

The logic: It's fun to bet on and it feels like we're due.

The pick: Over 777.5 total yards between both teams ($55 to win $50)

The logic: This is a lot of yards, but I'm predicting a lot of scoring. If Mahomes gets to 400 yards on his own, the 49ers can rush for 250 and leave the rest to Garoppolo.

The pick: Under 1.5 yards for the shortest touchdown of the game ($80 to win $50)

The logic: Whether it's because of a controversial review that shows a runner was down just short of the goal line or due to a penalty in the end zone, someone is going to have to punch in a touchdown from one yard out at some point during this game.

The pick: Yes, the Chiefs convert a fourth down ($50 to win $60)

The logic: The Chiefs attempted to convert on fourth down 10 times this season, lower than any other team in the NFL. Still, the Super Bowl is one game, and I think Andy Reid will get aggressive in order to win his first title.

The pick: Yes, there is a successful two-point conversion attempt ($50 to win $120)

The logic: If this game features a lot of scoring and a missed extra point as I predicted earlier, at some point the math will be right for a team to go for two.

The pick: Over 3.5 Chiefs score ($50 to win $50)

The logic: Two receivers, one running back, and the kicker gets you to four. Feels easy enough.

The pick: Over 2 touchdown passes from Patrick Mahomes ($150 to win $100)

The logic: Mahomes has carried the Chiefs this far and I don't think he's going to fall short now. You can juice the odds on this by taking it at 2.5, but keeping it at two allows you to get to a push fairly easily and protect your investment.

The pick: Over 54.5 total points scored ($110 to win $100)

The logic: After last year's snoozefest of a Super Bowl, we deserve a shootout. I think we're getting one.

The pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-1) over San Francisco 49ers ($220 to win $200)

The logic: It should have been their title last year, and Mahomes is still as unstoppable as he was then. This team has already erased double-digit deficits in two playoff games so far. Like a Big 12 team, no lead is safe.

The 49ers might jump out to an early lead, and their talented defense might be able to stifle the Chiefs offense longer than the Texans and Titans did, but once Kansas City gets in motion, they move the ball like an avalanche, seemingly scoring at will.

If they can do it again on Sunday, they'll be champions.

The pick: Patrick Mahomes ($50 to win $50)

The logic: If you're looking for longer odds, I like Mecole Hardman as a wild card pick — big special teams plays can define a Super Bowl, and if he has a game-changing return like he did against the Texans, that could be enough to elevate him to the award should Mahomes have a mediocre game.

But while backing the favorite is a boring play, I think Mahomes has earned his spot after the two performances he had leading up to the Super Bowl, and he's my pick to win MVP on Sunday, even at his low odds.

Mahomes is the reason why all of his offensive weapons are such a threat to have a big day on any given Sunday. When considering who to bet on for Super Bowl MVP, it's important to remember that none of them can have that stellar day without him — if Kelce goes off for 100 yards and two touchdowns, there's a good chance that Mahomes threw for 350 yards and four scores.

The Chiefs are leaving with one trophy on Sunday, but Mahomes will be leaving with two.

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