Tesla's $35,000 Model 3 is coming - here's what Wall Street is saying

Price Target: $406

Rating: Market Ouperform

"Tesla has come up with a novel approach to hitting its long-anticipated $35,000 price point for its Model 3, which consists of largely shutting down its sales network," JMP analyst Joseph Osaha said.

"That, combined with offering a variant of the Model 3 that appears to be quite stripped down, moves the inexpensive Model 3 solidly into the mass-market segment of the auto business."

Osaha says the $35,000 sedan stacks up "quite nicely" against the competition, but that switching to an online sales model will lead to the automaker "surrending some of its customers."

Price target: $390

Rating: Outperform

"This news is coming much earlier than expected and earlier than our expectations of the July/August range; in our opinion the company would not be rolling out this much anticipated version of Model 3 unless it could be done with GM that approach company targets, a key focus of the Street," analyst Dan Ives said.

He added: "In our opinion this announcement is a potential game changer for Musk and Tesla as the $35k vehicle at profitable margins is a linchpin to the bull thesis in the name and we view this news as a major step forward. While there are still questions that need to be answered around logistics and delivery, combined with the margin profile on this model, we believe this strategic shift was the right move at the right time for Tesla, although the stock will be a 'prove me' name for the next 6-9 months."

Price target: $500

Rating: Buy

"We maintain our bullish view on Tesla, as the announced changes and earlier-than-expected arrival of the $35,000 Model 3 demonstrate its determination to drive down costs for its vehicles," analyst Alexander Haissl said.

"The debate that the measures are a result of weakening demand are exaggerated and taken out of proportion, as we think the market underestimates the total addressable market for the Model 3 once all levers have been pulled."

Price target: $283

Rating: Equal-weight

"While this may stabilize the air-pocket in Q1 sales, we're concerned it’s a sign of a brand that may be, at the margin, losing its halo of exclusivity," analyst Adam Jonas said. "We think the bears have more material to work with than bulls here."

Addtionally, he believes getting rid of retail stores could "trigger a large amount of discussion with state and national regulatory bodies" and lead to "a number of legal challenges."

Jonas also thinks raising the required downpayment from $1,000 to $2,500 could act as a "pseudo-capital raise."

Price target: $430

Rating: Outperform

"We maintain our view that Europe & China demand should drive sales (once logistics issues are addressed) but now also expect the $35k Model 3 ($31,250 with US federal subsidy) to drive unit demand in the US," analyst Maynard Um said.

"While we expect this to come at a lower gross margin, lower store opex should offset if the company gets enough scale. We think it’s important to note what a big milestone a $35k Model 3 is, now coming in below the base price for ICE models like the BMW 3-series & Audi A4."

Price Target: $230

Rating: Underweight

"We do not think this was the original plan envisaged by Tesla management and bullish investors, but rather is instead suggestive of what we have long feared — that the Model 3 would prove more difficult and more expensive to manufacture than was originally projected, such that the firm would struggle to earn its targeted above industry average 25% gross margin as it transitions toward industry average pricing," analyst Ryan Brinkman said.

"And why would Tesla today be able to generate substantially above industry average gross margin on mass-market models, given it lacks the purchasing power and the ability to amortize fixed development costs across as many units as its much larger global automaker peers, and given the added cost of electric propulsion?"