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- Tesla is about to report earnings - here's what to look for
Tesla is about to report earnings - here's what to look for
Which Elon Musk will show up for the earnings call?
It's time for Tesla to tout its revenue.
For a company who's bottom line has been terrible for its entire existence, Tesla's topline revenue is starting to look impressive.
This makes sense: when you build vehicles that cost anywhere from $50,000-$150,000 and you sell more than 100,000 of them annually, a lot of money is going to slosh through your balance sheet.
Tesla has been adding about $200 million to its topline every quarter for some time, but with the Model 3 picking up speed on the deliveries front, that figure could improve spectacularly in the next six months. Tesla has $5-billion quarters in its sights.
More revenue means that some of the pressure Tesla has been under to manage its cash position could ease; it might be able to post regularly quarterly profits, but it might be able to switch profits on and off by managing its spending through a given year.
The obsession with Model 3 production could begin to fade.
In my decade-plus of covering the car business, I've never seen a vehicle so obsessively scrutinized as the Model 3. Normally, a carmaker announces a new vehicle and it just shows up. That's been the pattern for more or less 100 years.
The Model 3 has been pondered in the same way some philosophers contemplate the meaning of life. It is, however, just a four-door sedan that happens to run on electricity.
Yes, it's endured a fraught birth, but that's nothing new for Tesla: the Model S and Model X also had rough first years. People forget this because Musk is such a celebrity, but in terms of the global auto industry, Tesla is tiny. Its lack of scale magnifies every misstep.
But at this point, Model 3 production looks to relatively sustainable at around 2,000 vehicles per week minimum. Sure, Tesla wants 5,000 per week, and by early 2019, that level could be where the company is reliably at.
But the disaster that was the Model 3's launch — with barely any vehicles rolling off a balky assembly line for six months — is over.
News, news, news.
Unlike every other carmaker, Tesla trades on news. This is because other carmakers don't generate much news that can be traded on.
This has changed a bit as Ford and General Motors have begin to tackle new businesses, such as self-driving cars. But by and large, Tesla generates all the buzz in the business, for better and for worse.
The first half of 2018 has seen a feeding frenzy on the company, as the media has drilled into everything that Tesla is doing. Most of the time, analysts tune this noise out and focus on the signal of financial results, leading to the well-established very boring earnings call.
That's even less likely to happen with Q2 than it has been in the past. It remains to be seen whether Musk and his executives will decline to comment or take the bait.
Those other businesses that aren't cars.
Beyond electric cars, Tesla is also a solar-and-energy storage company. Neither business has attracted much attention from investors of late — a logical outcome, as nearly all the revenue is coming from the vehicle side.
But due to Tesla's taking on SolarCity's debt after it acquired the company in 2016, there could be some questions about how that business is going and what the deal is with teh showcase new product, the Tesla Solar Roof.
A capital raise and new vehicles.
Musk has said that Tesla won't need to raise any new capital in 2018, a pledge that has been met with skepticism, given that the company has less than $3 billion in cash in hand.
Somebody will certainly ask about it, and the best bet is that Musk will again say it's not needed. And move on.
More bullish analysts could also throw out some questions about new products, such as the Tesla Semi and the new Roadster.
The Roadster, in particular, has been under the radar since its reveal last year. That's a shame because this is Tesla's Ferrari and even at limited levels of production should be highly profitable.
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