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- Preakness Stakes 2018: How to bet every horse in second leg of the Triple Crown
Preakness Stakes 2018: How to bet every horse in second leg of the Triple Crown
Justify
Good Magic
Post position: No. 5
Current odds: 3-1
Why he's a good bet: As the odds indicate, Good Magic has the best chance of challenging Justify at the finish line. He ran well enough at the Derby to beat 18 other horses. He should have a strong position coming out of the fifth post, and if jockey Jose L. Ortiz can run a similar race to the one he ran at Churchill Downs, he has a good shot at once again challenging the favorite.
Reasons to be wary: As Chris Fallica noted on ESPN's "Behind the Bets" podcast, the Preakness has not had a second-favorite choice finish in the exacta since 1981. If you believe that Justify is going to take the top spot, trends would suggest that Good Magic is due to fall off.
How to bet him: Depends on how you see the race playing out. If you want to pick against the favorite to win, Good Magic is likely your best option. If you're looking for what the odds would suggest is a more likely trifecta, he's a good name to toss in with Justify and the longshot of your choice. But if you are riding the trend mentioned above, there's good reason to leave him off your board entirely — there are better payouts to be had elsewhere on the board.
Quip
Post position: No. 1
Current odds: 12-1
Why he's a good bet: Quip is running on fresh legs and enters the race in fine form. His last race was a second place finish in the Arkansas Derby, where he ran stride-for-stride with a then-undefeated Magnum Moon all the way until the final stretch. If any fresh horse is going to be the one to take down Justify, Quip is likely the one.
Reasons to be wary: This will be the longest race of Quip's young career, and there's always a bit of an unknown factor when pushing a horse to a new distance. Quip has won three of his five career races, but there's a chance he falls off in the final stretch if other horses prove to have the legs.
How to bet him: Again, if you're looking to pick a horse to win that's not named Justify, Quip is a fun ticket and should go off at relatively reasonable odds. He's also likely a solid trifecta play to pair with Justify and another horse if you're looking to increase your payout at the top of the ticket. My money will have him in more than one trifecta.
Lone Sailor
Post position: No. 2
Current odds: 15-1
Why he's a good bet: While his finish at the Kentucky Derby fell a bit short of trainer Thomas M. Amoss' hopes, Lone Sailor will have a new jockey heading into the Preakness which could make a difference.
Reasons to be wary: Lone Sailor hasn't won a race in his past six starts, and finished fifth or worse in three of them.
How to bet him: Throw him into a trifecta or superfecta if you're trying to cover your bases on some longshot bets, but I won't have any of my money on him come Saturday.
Bravazo
Post position: No. 8
Current odds: 20-1
Why he's a good bet: Bravazo ran a better-than-expected race at the Derby. Despite being forced wide for basically the entire circuit of the race, he closed strong and finished in sixth. Despite starting in the widest post, the smaller field of the Preakness should make the race an easier one to navigate, and if he can run a similar pace to what he hit at Churchill Downs but hang a little closer to the rail, he's a good pick to find himself in the top three.
Reasons to be wary: He's now finished sixth or worse in three of his past five races, and has already finished behind half of the horses in this field in other races.
How to bet him: Bravazo's run in the Derby was deceptively encouraging, and if he's in a similar form I him to finish in the top three. Justify with Quip and Bravazo in either slot of second and third will be one of my heavier trifecta plays.
Tenfold
Post position: No. 6
Current odds: 20-1
Why he's a good bet: He undoubtedly has the pedigree for this race, as his sire Curlin won the Preakness Stakes back in 2007. Like the favorite Justify, Tenfold did not start his racing career until he was a three-year-old, winning his first two races before falling off to a fifth place finish at the Arkansas Derby. He's already proven himself a winner, and with this being just his fourth race, there's no telling how much he's improved since his run in Arkansas.
Reasons to be wary: His only race against comparable competition was his disappointing finish in the Arkansas Derby.
How to bet him: He's another horse I'll be throwing into trifecta plays with Quip and Bravazo with Justify at the top. A Justify-Tenfold exacta doesn't strike me as too bad a bet either.
Diamond King
Post position: No. 4
Current odds: 30-1
Why he's a good bet: Well, his odds will be long. If he runs the race of his life and winds up in the top three, it'll be a nice bonus to anyone who hit their trifecta.
Reasons to be wary: Diamond King won his invitation to the Preakness Stakes thanks to a first place finish in the Federico Tesio Stakes. According to Don Markus at the Balitmore Sun, since the Tesio moved to Laurel Park in 1981, just won horse that won the race has gone on to win the Preakness, and no such horse has finished in the money at Pimlico since Icabad Crane ran third in 2008.
How to bet him: Again, if you're looking to cover your bases on a trifecta or superfecta, buy the extra ticket just in case, but he won't be a part of any of my plays on Saturday.
Sporting Chance
Post position: No. 3
Current odds: 30-1
Why he's a good bet: Like Diamond King, he'll be add a good amount of winnings to anyone that has the guts to bet him should he sneak into the top three. If you're a high risk, high reward type player, sure take a shot with him.
Reasons to be wary: He hasn't finished higher than third in the four races he's run this year, including a disappointing fourth place finish at the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on the same muddy track that the Kentucky Derby was run on.
How to bet him: Personally, I'll pass. But if you like a horse with a solid trainer to bounce back after a disappointing finish, throw him into a few trifectas and cross your fingers.
So how are we actually betting the race?
Justify will be at the top of every one of my tickets. He's the strongest horse in the field and remains undefeated. Bob Baffert has never had a Kentucky Derby winner lose as Pimlico, and Justify has already proven that he can navigate a muddy track with calm and certainty.
Behind him, I'll be working combinations of Good Magic, Quip, Tenfold, and Bravazo. If that sounds like a lot, it is, but finding the right trifecta is all about covering your bases. If you were going to restrict me to my best bets, I'd run with Justify-Quip finishing first and second and play Tenfold/Good Magic/Bravazo in the third spot of my trifecta.
That said, I wouldn't fault anyone for holding faith that Good Magic will be able to hold on to his second place finish from the Derby, and there's likely a play with him and a variety of third place finishers.
Ultimately, horse racing is tough, and if you should just bet however you want. If there's one this the sport has proven time and time again, it's that anything can happen once the starting gun sounds.
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