Baylor (+1.5) over Kansas State*
Baylor had a gutsy win over Iowa State last weekend to move to 4-0 on the season. Kansas State should be the best defense they've faced so far this year, but I think head coach Matt Rhule can keep the ball rolling for the Bears.
Ohio State* (-20) over Michigan State
Ohio State embarrassed Nebraska last weekend with a 48-7 throttling, and will look to keep their collective foot on the gas this Saturday at home against Michigan State. The Spartans have yet to face a defense anywhere close to what the Buckeyes will present this weekend, so even with the long number, we're backing the favorites.
Pittsburgh (+5) over Duke*
Pittsburgh has been an up-and-down team all year. Two weeks ago they gave the undefeated UCF Knights a punch in the nose, only to be pushed to the brink against lowly Delaware last weekend. With a down performance last week, I expect the Panthers to be back up this Saturday as they face off against the Blue Devils.
Notre Dame* (-46) over Bowling Green
After a tough loss to Georgia and a hard-fought win against Virginia, it feels like Notre Dame is ready to run over a lesser opponent, and Bowling Green just happens to be standing in their way this weekend. The Irish put up 66 points against New Mexico earlier in the year, and this feels like a similar opportunity for them to flex their muscles.
Stanford* (+16.5) over Washington
I love Washington this year, but the big bettors in Las Vegas are taking the points in this game. According to the Action Network, while betting tickets on this game are split 50/50, nearly 90% of the money is on Stanford to cover the number, indicating that some of the heavy hitters believe in the Cardinal. I'll assume that the guys betting $10,000 on this game know more than I do and just follow their lead.
Boise State (-22.5) over UNLV*
UNLV has already lost to both Arkansas State and Wyoming by more than 23 points this season. Boise State is better than either of those teams. Don't overthink it. As long as the Broncos can keep their focus while visiting Sin City, they should roll.