NFL WEEK 1: Our official predictions for who wins this weekend

The pick: Steelers -3.5

The logic: I thought this was the year that I would finally get to profit off the Browns, but now they're one of the most popular bets in Las Vegas. The Steelers may be missing Le'Veon Bell and may not have the talent they used to on defense, but they're still the Steelers, and the Browns are still the Browns.

Ben Roethlisberger is the winningest quarterback in the history of Cleveland. Don't overthink it.

The pick: Colts -3

The logic: Andrew Luck is back in Indianapolis, and Marvin Lewis is still in Cincinnati.

The pick: Dolphins +1.5

The logic: Home dogs in Week 1 against a Titans team that doesn't seem all that impressive. Not much more to it than that.

The pick: 49ers +6.5

The logic: Jimmy Garoppolo still hasn't lost as a starter in the NFL. This Vikings team is still stacked across the roster, and there's little doubt that Minneapolis will be raucous for the debut of Kirk Cousins. But I think the Niners do enough to keep it close.

The pick: Texans +6.5

The logic: The Patriots don't have two wide receivers you can name. Meanwhile, the Texans are bringing back two Pro Bowlers from injury. It's tough to make money betting against the Patriots, but New England started the year flat last year as well.

The pick: Saints -9.5

The logic: It never feels great laying the biggest spread on the board in Week 1, but the Saints aren't losing their home opener to the Buccaneers.

The pick: Giants +3

The logic: The Jaguars and Blake Bortles as a road favorite against a rejuvenated Giants team. I don't fault people for backing the Jags, but give me Odell Beckham Jr. at home to put on a show in his first game back.

The pick: Bills +7.5

The logic: God forgive me. The last time Nathan Peterman took the field as a starter he threw five interceptions and almost played the Bills out of the playoffs. But every bettor I've come across is on the Ravens here, and it feels like too many points. When the gambling world zigs, we zag.

The pick: Chiefs +3

The logic: I don't hate the Chargers this year, but they have lost four of their past five season openers and proved last season that they have no home-field advantage to speak of. Patrick Mahomes is surrounded with talent in his first year starting with the Chiefs and should have a good game plan to work with from Andy Reid.

The pick: Broncos -3

The logic: The Seahawks have a paper-thin offensive line, and the Broncos have Von Miller. Russell Wilson will be the best player on the field on Sunday, but I expect him to spend most of the game running for his life.

The pick: Cardinals -1

The logic: Coin flip — take the home team.

The pick: Panthers -3

The logic: I think the Cowboys have the potential for a disastrous year, and that Cam Newton has the potential to win MVP. This game might be my favorite bet on the board.

The pick: Bears +7.5

The logic: The Bears have gone all-in on 2018 in a similar fashion to the Eagles and Rams, taking advantage of a quarterback on a cheap contract to sign a boatload of talent in the offseason. They might not yet be ready to upset the Packers on the road, but they certainly have enough to keep things close.

The pick: Jets +6.5

The logic: Let the Sam Darnold era begin!

The pick: Raiders +4

The logic: The Rams have had the greatest offseason in recent memory, while the Raiders just traded away one of the best defensive players in the NFL so Jon Gruden could more fully pursue his "Smashmouth Football" renaissance. Still, this is the Monday night late game when every gambler will be chasing the money they lost earlier in the day, slamming Los Angeles.

I am closing my eyes and taking the home dogs.